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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 84-90.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.874

• • 上一篇    

济南市大气颗粒物与儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量的时间序列分析

贾晓倩1,崔亮亮2,岳克三3,李新伟2,韩联宇3,吴兴彬3,周敬文2   

  1. 1.北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191;2.济南市疾病预防控制中心, 山东 济南 250021;3.济南市历城区疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科, 山东 济南 250100
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 周敬文. E-mail:zhoujingwen666@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2015WS0435)

Time series analysis on the effects of particulate matter on the hospital visits of childrens respiratory diseases in Jinan City

JIA Xiaoqian1, CUI Liangliang2, YUE Kesan3, LI Xinwei2, HAN Lianyu3, WU Xingbin3, ZHOU Jingwen2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology &
    Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China;
    2. Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Public Health, Jinan Licheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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摘要： 目的 分析济南市2016年大气颗粒物(PM2.5、PM10)对儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量的急性影响。 方法 描述性分析逐日呼吸系统疾病就诊量、空气污染物、气象因素的集中趋势与离散趋势,计算污染物、气象因素与各组就诊量之间的Spearman相关系数。采用基于Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM)评估大气颗粒物与儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量的急性效应,并探讨不同性别、不同年龄段(<1岁、1~4岁、5~9岁和≥10岁)人群的脆弱性。 结果 2016年济南市PM2.5和PM10的日均浓度均值分别为73 μg/m3和138 μg/m3。儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量日均值为716人次/d。PM2.5和PM10浓度每升高10 μg/m3,当日呼吸系统疾病就诊量分别增加0.37%(95%CI: 0.04%~0.72%)和0.29%(95%CI: 0.09%~0.50%)。女性效应值略高于男性,随年龄段增加效应值有逐渐升高趋势。 结论 济南市大气颗粒物浓度升高与儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量增加存在显著急性效应,且女性较男性敏感,年龄增加敏感性增强。

关键词: 大气颗粒物, 儿童, 门诊, 呼吸系统疾病, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the short-term effect of daily average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 on the hospital visits of childrens respiratory diseases in Jinan City in 2016. Methods A descriptive analysis of the epidemiological characters of outpatients with respiratory diseases, air pollution and weather conditions were conducted. Spearman correlation of air pollutants, weather conditions and hospital visiting were analyzed. Generalized linear model(GLM)based on Poisson regression was used to estimate the acute effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on hospital visits. The vulnerability of different genders and age groups(<1 year old, 1-4 years old, 5-9 years old and ≥10 years old)was assessed. Results The average daily mean concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 73 μg/m3 and 138 μg/m3, respectively. The average hospital visit of respiratory diseases was 716 persons/day. Respiratory diseases could increase by 0.37%(95%CI: 0.04%~0.72%)and 0.29%(95%CI: 0.09%~0.50%)with a 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 and PM10. The effects were 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -贾晓倩,等.济南市大气颗粒物与儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量的时间序列分析 \=-greater in females than in males, which showed an increasing trend with the increase of age. Conclusion A significant acute effect of airborne particulate matter with respiratory diseases in children has been observed. The female is more sensitive to air pollution than male, and the older children are more vulnerable to air pollution.

Key words: Particulate matter, Children, Hospital visit, Respiratory disease, Time series analysis

中图分类号: 

  • R181.3
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