山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 48-52.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.176
• • 上一篇
王志强1,徐艳龙1,肖长春2,冯晓亮1,郑莉1,李飞1,黄发源3
WANG Zhiqiang1, XU Yanlong1, XIAO Changchun2, FENG Xiaoliang1, ZHENG Li1, LI Fei1, HUANG Fayuan3
摘要: 目的 评估合肥市2014~2016年PM2.5日均浓度对循环系统疾病死亡效应的影响。 方法 从合肥市气象局、环保局获得2014~2016年气象、环保资料,从中国疾病预防控制中心的死因监测系统获取人群死亡资料。采用基于Poisson回归的广义线性模型控制时间趋势、温度、相对湿度、星期几效应、法定节假日等因素,分析污染物PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病死亡效应,包含当日(lag0)、滞后(lag1~lag5)和累积滞后(lag01~lag05)效应;分析了老年人组(≥60岁)和非老年人组(<60岁)间PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响,同时分析引入SO2、NO2、O3污染物后,对PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数效应的影响。 结果 PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数有显著影响,其中对当日(lag0)和累积滞后5 d(lag05)影响最大,lag0超额死亡危险风险(ER)为0.53%(95%CI: 0.09%~0.98%),lag05的ER为1.01%(95%CI: 0.33%~1.70%)。在老年人组(≥60岁)中,PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数的效应更加显著,也是对lag0和lag05影响最大,lag0的ER为0.57%(95%CI: 0.11%~1.03%);lag05的ER为1.04%(95%CI: 0.33%~1.76%)。而在非老年人(年龄<60岁)人群中,PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数影响无统计学意义。在多污染物模型分析中,加入污染物SO2、NO2后,发现均可减弱PM2.5对循环系统疾病死亡人群的影响,效应无统计学意义。 结论 2014~2016年PM2.5污染物能增加合肥地区循环系统疾病死亡人数,且在老年人中效应更显著。
中图分类号:
[1] Kan H, Chen B, Hong C. Health impact of outdoor air pollution in China: current knowledge and future research needs[J]. Environ Health Perspect, 2009, 117(5): A187. [2] 潘小川. 关注中国大气灰霾(PM2.5)对人群健康影响的新常态[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 2015, 47(3): 377-379. [3] 穆泉, 张世秋. 2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013, 33(11): 2087-2094. MU Quan, ZHANG Shiqiu. An evaluation of the economic loss due to the heavy haze during January 2013 in China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013, 33(11): 2087-2094. [4] WHO. 7 million premature deaths annually linked to air pollution[EB/OL].(2014-3-25)[2018-02-01]. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/. [5] 徐艳龙, 黄发源, 王志强,等. 2014-2015年合肥市大气PM2.5污染对儿童门诊量影响的时间序列分析[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2017, 34(4): 321-324. XU Yanlong, HUANG Fayuan, WANG Zhiqiang, et al. Influence of ambient PM2.5 pollution on clinic visits of children in Hefei in 2014-2015:a time series analysis[J]. J Environ Health, 2017, 34(4): 321-324. [6] Luo L, Jiang J, Zhang G, et al. Stroke mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution from 1990 to 2015 in China: an age-period-cohort and Spatial autocorrelation analysis[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2017, 14(7): 772- 788. [7] Hurvich CM, Simonoff JS, Tsai C. Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion[J]. J R Statist Soc B, 1998, 60(2): 271-293. [8] Brook RD, Franklin B, Cascio W, et al. Air pollution and cardiovascular disease a statement for healthcare professionals from the expert panel on population and prevention science of the American Heart Association[J]. Circulation, 2004, 109(21):2655-2671. [9] Dai L, Zanobetti A, Koutrakis P, et al. Associations of fine particulate matter species with mortality in the United States: a multicity time-series analysis[J]. Environ Health Perspect, 2014, 122(8): 837-842. [10] 张永利, 莫哲, 易井萍,等. 舟山市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病日死亡人数的影响[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017, 34(3): 224-229. ZHANG Yongli, MO Zhe, YI Jingping, et al. Effect of PM2.5 on daily mortality of circulatory diseases in Zhoushan City[J]. J Environ Occup Med, 2017, 34(3): 224-229. [11] Zhang C, Ding R, Cao J, et al. Association between air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Hefei, China: A time-series analysis[J]. Environ Pollut, 2017, 229(10): 790-797. [12] Kan H, London SJ, Chen G, et al. Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: the public health and air pollution in asia(PAPA)Study[J]. Environ Health Perspect, 2008, 116(9):1183-1188. [13] Mills NL, Donaldson K, Hadoke PW, et al. Adverse cardiovascular effects of air pollution[J]. Nat Clin Pract Card, 2009, 6(1): 36-44. [14] Tsai DH, Amyai N, Marques-Vidal P, et al. Effects of particulate matter on inflammatory markers in the general adult population[J]. Part Fibre Toxicol, 2012, 9(1):24-33. [15] Hennig F, Fuks K, Moebus S, et al. Association between source-specific particulate matter air pollution and hs-CRP: local traffic and industrial emissions[J]. Environ Health Perspect, 2014, 122(7): 703-710. [16] Brook RD, Urch B, Dvonch JT, et al. Insights into the mechanisms and mediators of the effects of air pollution exposure on blood pressure and vascular function in healthy humans[J]. Hypertension, 2009, 54(3): 659-667. [17] Lucking AJ, Lundback M, Mills NL, et al. Diesel exhaust inhalation increases thrombus formation in man[J]. Eur Heart J, 2008, 29(24):3043-3051. [18] Chiarella SE, Soberanes S, Urich D, et al. β-Adrenergic agonists augment air pollution-induced IL-6 release and thrombosis[J]. J Clin Invest., 2014, 124(7):2935-2946. [19] Aztatzi-Aguilar OG, Uribe-Ramírez M, Arias-Monta(~overn)o JA, et al. Acute and subchronic exposure to air particulate matter induces expression of angiotensin and bradykinin-related genes in the lungs and heart: Angiotensin-II type-I receptor as a molecular target of particulate matter exposure[J]. Part Fibrt Toxicol, 2015, 12(1):17-34. [20] 周慧霞, 谢俊卿, 信振江,等. 北京市某区PM2.5与居民冠心病死亡关系研究[J]. 首都公共卫生, 2017, 11(5): 216-219. ZHOU Huixia, XIE Junqing, XIN Zhenjiang, et al. Relationship between fine particulate matter and coronary heart disease death in one district of Beijing[J]. Capital Journal of Public Health, 2017, 11(5): 216-219. [21] 刘晓剑,吴永胜,付英斌,等. 深圳市空气PM2.5与心脑血管疾病死亡的广义相加模型分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2016, 20(2): 207-209. LIU Xiaojian, WU Yongsheng, FU Yingbin, et al. Time-series analysis of air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen[J]. Chin J Dis Control Prev, 2016, 20(2): 207-209. [22] 董凤鸣,莫运政,李国星,等.大气颗粒物(PM10/PM2.5)与人群循环系统疾病死亡关系的病例交叉研究[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 2013, 45(3): 398-404. DONG Fengming, MO Yunzheng, LI Guoxing, et al. Association between ambient PM10 /PM2.5 levels and population mortality of circulatory diseases: a case-crossover study in Beijing[J]. Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences), 2013, 45(3): 398-404. [23] 钱旭君, 沈月平, 贺天锋, 等. 宁波市大气颗粒物与人群因心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2016, 37(6): 841-845. QIAN Xujun, SHEN Yueping, HE Tianfeng, et al.Relationship between particulate matters and cardio, cerebrovascular mortality in Ningbo:a time-series study[J]. Chin J Epidemiol, 2016, 37(6): 841-845. [24] Weli VE, Adegoke JO, Kpang MB. The Epidemiology of cardio-vascular diseases in relation to the air quality of abattoirs in Port Harcourt, Nigeria[J]. World J Cardiovasc Dis, 2016, 6(4): 94-107. [25] 崔亮亮,周连,陈晓东,等. 近10年南京市典型区域大气污染物浓度时空变化特征[J]. 现代预防医学, 2013, 40(18): 3356-3360. CUI Liangliang, ZHOU Lian, CHEN Xiaodong, et al. Characteristics of time-and-spatial change in air pollutant concentrations in typical areas of Nanjing City during the past decade[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2013, 40(18):3356-3360. |
[1] | 姜卉,魏甜,李建平,王聪. 葛根素对索拉非尼心肌毒性的保护及作用机制[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2022, 60(8): 14-22. |
[2] | 秦静,杨飞,陈谦,夏涵岱,刘延国,王秀问. 晚期驱动基因阴性、PD-L1表达阴性非鳞非小细胞肺癌一线治疗方案的网状Meta分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2022, 60(7): 74-82. |
[3] | 刘盈,杨淑霞,佘凯丽,程传龙,房启迪,韩闯,崔峰,李秀君. 2019年山东省淄博市居民死因及疾病负担探析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2022, 60(6): 114-121. |
[4] | 毕凤英,闫冬勤,陈曦,罗丹. HIV感染者/艾滋病患者自杀死亡危险因素理论框架构建——基于扎根理论的定性研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2022, 60(1): 109-117. |
[5] | 田庆,刘永鹏,张晶晶,刘洪庆. ARIMA乘积季节模型在山东省肺结核发病预测中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(7): 112-118. |
[6] | 张高瑞,张玉婷,赵雨萱,王方青,于德新. MnFe2O4@CNS纳米探针在胰腺癌诊疗一体化中的价值[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(4): 48-55. |
[7] | 许怀悦,王情,马润美,班婕,李湉湉. 温度相关的疾病负担研究进展[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(12): 13-19, 32. |
[8] | 叶子雯,黄蕾,方强,龙海平. 457例孕妇PM2.5风险感知与防护行为个体差异和关联分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2021, 59(12): 96-100. |
[9] | 姜小峰,姚静静,朱大伟,何平,石学峰,孟庆跃. 补偿机制改革对山东省某县级公立医院住院服务的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 1(9): 95-102. |
[10] | 杨珍,张艳敏,王倩倩,陈惠敏,冯强,周少英. 微小RNA-103及RNA-107表达与120例脓毒症患者临床特征及预后的关联分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(12): 77-85. |
[11] | 刘军,李欢,张仕玉,张鹏,艾思奇,田飞,林华亮. 湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎患者发生重型、危重型的影响因素[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 60-65. |
[12] | 姜运峰,董晓鹏,赵小刚. PD-1单克隆抗体联合血管内皮抑素在Lewis肺癌小鼠的抗肿瘤效应[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(9): 11-16. |
[13] | 张安然,胡文琦,李佳蔚,魏然,马伟. 热浪对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响的病例交叉研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 56-62. |
[14] | 李京,王创新,胥欣,杨军,王春平,薛付忠,刘起勇. 气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 76-87. |
[15] | 马洁,田野,黄璐,孟维静,王素珍,石福艳. ARIMA乘积季节模型与广义回归神经网络模型在布鲁菌病发病预测的比较[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(6): 76-82. |
|