您的位置：山东大学 -> 科技期刊社 -> 《山东大学学报（医学版）》

山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 91-97.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1206

• • 上一篇    

济南市大气污染物O3与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的时间序列分析

曹若明1,崔亮亮2,姜超3,景一鸣1,周林4,张琳3,刘守钦1   

  1. 1.济南市疾病预防控制中心业务管理办公室, 山东 济南 250021;2.济南市疾病预防控制中心环境健康所, 山东 济南 250021;3.济南市市中区疾病预防控制中心, 山东 济南 250022;4.济南市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 刘守钦. E-mail:liushouqin@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2015WS0435、2016WSA01078)

Association between ambient ozone and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan, China: a time series analysis

CAO Ruoming1, CUI Liangliang2, JIANG Chao3, JING Yiming1, ZHOU Lin4, ZHANG Lin3, LIU Shouqin1   

  1. 1. Office of Public Health Services, Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Environmental Health, Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    3. Shizhong District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250022, Shandong, China;
    4. Non-Communicable Chronic Disease Branch, Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

PDF (PC)

9

摘要： 目的 探讨济南市大气污染物O3对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的急性影响。 方法 收集2013~2015年济南市逐日空气污染物、气象资料和居民呼吸系统疾病死因数据,控制长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、星期几效应(DOW)、节假日效应(Holiday)和集中供暖效应(Warm-heating)等混杂因素,采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM)进行分析,计算O3浓度每升高10 μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病死亡率增加的ER及95%CI。敏感性分析实施双污染物模型(O3+ PM2.5、O3+ SO2、O3+NO2)和多污染物模型(O3+PM2.5+SO2+NO2)拟合。同时进一步对性别、年龄进行分层分析。 结果 2013~2015年济南市O3日均浓度为102 μg/m3、日均呼吸系统疾病死亡人数为8人。O3浓度每升高10 μg/m3,居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险在lag3和lag05时达到最高,分别增加0.95%(95%CI:0.28%~1.63%)和1.70%(95%CI:0.27%~3.16%)。男性和女性的ER值差别不大,但65岁以上人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险显著增加。 结论 济南市大气污染物O3对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险具有显著急性影响,65岁以上老人更为敏感。

关键词: 臭氧, 呼吸系统疾病, 死亡率, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Objective To investigate the association between ambient ozone(O3)and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan City. Methods The daily information of air pollutants, meteorological indicators and mortality of respiratory diseases during 2013 and 2015 was collected. The association between daily O3 and mortality of respiratory diseases was evaluated with general linear model(GLM)based on Quasi-Poisson regression. Confounding factors of the seasonal 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -曹若明,等.济南市大气污染物O3与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险的时间序列分析 \=-patterns, long-term trends, meteorological factors, day of the week(DOW)effect, holiday effect and warm-heating effect were controlled. Excess risk(ER)and 95% confidence interval(95%CI)of the mortality of respiratory diseases were calculated based on a 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration. Sensitive analysis was conducted, including dual-pollutant model(O3+PM2.5, O3+SO2, O3+NO2)and multi-pollutant model(O3+PM2.5+SO2+NO2). A further analysis was conducted based on gender and age group stratification. Results The daily average concentration of O3 was 102 μg/m3, and 8 persons died of respiratory diseases daily. Overall, with 10 μg/m3 increase in the concentration of O3, the ERs for mortality of respiratory diseases were 0.95%(95%CI: 0.28%-1.63%)and 1.70%(95%CI: 0.27%-3.16%)in lag3 and lag05, respectively. There was no statistical difference in ER between male and female, but a significantly higher ER was observed in persons aged ≥65 years. Conclusion There is a positive association between daily O3 and mortality of respiratory diseases in Jinan, especially among people who are above 65 years old.

Key words: Ozone, Respiratory City disease, Mortality, Time series analysis

中图分类号: 

  • R574
[1] 邬堂春. 防控空气污染加强空气污染致健康危害研究[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2016, 50(8): 665-667. WU Tangchun. Prevention and control of air pollution needs to strengthen further study on health damage caused by air pollution[J]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2016, 50(8): 665-667.
[2] 钱旭君, 李国星, 贺天锋, 等. 宁波市大气污染物一氧化碳及臭氧对人群心肌梗死死亡的急性效应研究[J].中华流行病学杂志, 2017, 38(3): 297-302. QIAN Xujun, LI Guoxing, HE Tianfeng, et al. Acute effect of air pollutants(carbon monoxide and ozone)on myocardialinfarction mortality in Ningbo[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2017, 38(3): 297-302.
[3] Bert Brunekreef, Stephen T Holgate. Air pollution and health[J]. Lancet, 2002, 360(9341): 1233-1242.
[4] 杨敏娟, 潘小川. 北京市大气污染与居民心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2008, 25(4): 294-297. YANG Minjuan, PAN Xiaochuan. Time-series analysis of air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2008, 25(4): 294-297.
[5] Chan CK, Yao XH. Air pollution in mega cities in China[J]. Atmos Environ, 2008, 42(1): 1-42.
[6] Brook RD, Rajagopalan S, Pope CA, et al. Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: an update to the scientific statement from the American heart association[J]. Circulation, 2010, 121(21): 2331-2378.
[7] 刘昌景, 黄飞, 杨志洲, 等. 我国空气污染物与人群呼吸系统疾病死亡急性效应的Meta分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2015, 36(8): 889-895. LIU Changjing, HUANG Fei, YANG Zhizhou, et al. A Meta analysis on the associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2015, 36(8): 889-895.
[8] 王文韬, 孙庆华, 覃健, 等. 中国5个城市2013-2015年空气质量健康指数模拟研究[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2017, 38(3): 314-319. WANG Wentao, SUN Qinghua, QIN Jian, et al.Simulation study of air quality health index in 5 cities in China: 2013-2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, 2017, 38(3): 314-319.
[9] 殷永泉, 单文坡, 纪霞, 等. 济南大气臭氧浓度变化规律[J]. 环境科学, 2006, 27(11): 2299-2302. YIN Yongquan, SHAN Wenpo, JI Xia, et al. Characteristics of Atmospheric ozone in the Urban Area of Jinan[J]. Environment Science, 2006, 27(11): 2299-2302.
[10] 刘芳, 孙明虎. 济南城区夏季近地面臭氧浓度分析[J]. 中国环境管理干部学院学报, 2016, 26(3): 47-50. LIU Fang, SUN Minghu. Analysis on Surface Ozone Concentration in Urban Area of Jinan in Summertime[J]. Journal of the Environmental Management College of China, 2016, 26(3): 47-50.
[11] World Health Organization(WHO). Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of disease[R]. Geneva: WHO, 2016.
[12] Yang G, Wang Y, Zeng Y, et al. Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J]. Lancet, 2013, 381(9882): 1987-2015.
[13] 陈仁杰. 复合型大气污染对我国17城市居民健康效应研究[D]. 上海: 复旦大学, 2013.
[14] Srebot V, Gianicolo EA, Rainaldi G, et al. Ozone and cardiovascular injury[J]. Cardiovascular Ultrasound, 2009, 7: 30. doi: 10.1186/1476-7120-7-30.
[15] Wong TW, Tam WS, Yu TS, et al. Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in HongKong, China[J]. Occup Environ Med, 2002, 59(1): 30-35.
[16] 廖志恒, 范绍佳. 2006~2012年珠江三角洲地区O3污染对人群健康的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2015, 35(3): 897-905. LIAO Zhiheng, FAN Shaojia. Human health impact of exposure to ozone pollutant in Pearl River Delta region during 2006-2012[J]. China Environmental Science, 2015, 35(3): 897-905.
[17] 班婕, 李湉湉. 北京市不同度量方式下臭氧短期暴露人群急性健康效应研究[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2016, 33(4): 287-291. BAN Jie, LI Tiantian. Short-term effects of different ozone metrics on daily mortality in Beijing[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2016, 33(4): 287-291.
[18] 崔亮亮, 周敬文, 张军, 等. 灰霾期间常见一般和危重症状的急性效应分析[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2014, 31(7): 600-603. CUI Liangliang, ZHOU Jingwen, ZHANG Jun, et al. Analysis of acute symptoms in common and critically ill patients during haze event[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2014, 31(7): 600-603.
[19] Cui LL, Zhang J, Zhang J, et al. Acute respiratory and cardiovascular health effects of an air pollution event, January 2013, Jinan, China[J]. Public Health, 2016, 131: 99-102. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2015.11.003.
[20] Liu P, Wang X, Fan J, et al. Effects of Air Pollution on Hospital Emergency Room Visits for Respiratory Diseases: Urban-Suburban Differences in Eastern China[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2016, 13(3): 341-353.
[21] Burnett RT, Stieb D, Brook JR, et al. Associations between short-term changes in Nitrogen Dioxide and Mortality in Canadian cities[J]. Arch Environ Health, 2004,59(5):228-236.
[22] Katsouyanni K, Samet JM, Anderson HR, et al. Air pollution and health: a European and North American approach(APHENA)[J]. Res Rep Health Eff Inst, 2009, 142: 5-90.
[23] Hurvich CM, Simonoff JS, Tsai CL. Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion[J]. J Royal Statistical Society. Series B Statistical Methodol, 1998, 60(2): 271-293.
[24] 闫美霖, 李湉湉, 刘晓途, 等. 我国臭氧短期暴露的人群健康效应研究进展[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2012, 29(8): 752-761. YAN Meilin, LI Tiantian, LIU Xiaotu, et al. Human health effects of short-term ozone exposure: a review of Chinese epidemiological evidence[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2012, 29(8): 752-761.
[25] Tao YB, Huang W, Huang X L, et al. Estimated acute effects of ambient ozone and nitrogen dioxide on mortality in the pearl river delta of southern China[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012, 120(3): 393-398.
[26] 秦萌, 陈英, 李敬芝, 等. 上海市奉贤区主要大气污染物对人群呼吸系统急性健康效应的影响[J]. 东南大学学报(医学版), 2017, 36(2): 197-202. QIN Meng, CHEN Ying, LI Jingzhi, et al. The acute respiratory effects of main air pollutants in Fengxian District of Shanghai[J]. Journal of Southeast University(Medical Science Edition), 2017, 36(2): 197-202.
[27] Mercedes MR, Joel S. Who is More Vulnerable to Die From Ozone Air Pollution[J]. Epidemiology, 2008, 19(5): 672-679.
[28] 晋乐飞, 冯斐斐, 段丽菊, 等. 臭氧对呼吸系统影响研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2015, 3l(5): 685-688. JIN Yuefei, FENG Feifei, DUAN Liju, et al. Effects of ambient ozone on human respiratory system[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2015, 3l(5): 685-688.
[1] 刘盈,杨淑霞,佘凯丽,程传龙,房启迪,韩闯,崔峰,李秀君. 2019年山东省淄博市居民死因及疾病负担探析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2022, 60(6): 114-121.
[2] 杨珍,张艳敏,王倩倩,陈惠敏,冯强,周少英. 微小RNA-103及RNA-107表达与120例脓毒症患者临床特征及预后的关联分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(12): 77-85.
[3] 李佳蔚,魏然,张安然,胡文琦,林君芬,马伟. 热带气旋与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病日就诊量的病例交叉研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 43-49.
[4] 李京,王创新,胥欣,杨军,王春平,薛付忠,刘起勇. 气温对2007~2013年济南市人群慢性非传染性疾病死亡的归因风险研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 76-87.
[5] 魏然,张安然,李佳蔚,胡文琦,薛莉,林君芬,马伟. 夏季日温差与医院门诊呼吸系统疾病就诊量的关系[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(8): 107-113.
[6] 崔亮亮,张萌,于坤坤,姜超,阮师漫. 济南市大气重点污染物对居民应急呼叫事件的急性影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 34-41.
[7] 刘晓利,刘芳盈,孟超,李平,张殿平,殷茂荣,翟慎永. 淄博市大气污染物浓度与急救人次关联的时间序列分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 42-47.
[8] 游颖琦,朱晶颖,张旭辉,张熙,周伟杰. 无锡市大气污染对成人内科门诊量影响的时间序列研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 53-60.
[9] 满金宇,崔亮亮,韩联宇,于坤坤,吴兴彬,岳克三,周敬文. 2014~2016年济南市空气污染严重地区大气颗粒物对社区人群门诊就诊量的急性效应分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 61-67.
[10] 陈浪,赵川,陈凤格,白萍. 石家庄市大气颗粒污染物浓度对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 68-75.
[11] 肖长春,唐静,李玉荣,翟金霞. 合肥市空气污染与某儿童医院肺炎门诊量关系的时间序列分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 76-83.
[12] 贾晓倩,崔亮亮,岳克三,李新伟,韩联宇,吴兴彬,周敬文. 济南市大气颗粒物与儿童呼吸系统疾病就诊量的时间序列分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2018, 56(11): 84-90.
[13] 于晓琳,张军,杨柳,周林,崔亮亮,张济. 济南市慢性阻塞性肺部疾病患者在流感季呼吸系统疾病的罹患特征[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2017, 55(3): 79-82.
[14] 杨柳,周林,张军,王莹,刘守钦. 2011―2015年济南市道路交通伤害死亡病例特征[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2017, 55(12): 77-81.
[15] 李润滋,章涛,梁玉民,罗成,蒋正,薛付忠,刘言训,刘静,李秀君. SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病预测中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2016, 54(9): 82-86.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
版权所有 © 2018 《山东大学学报(医学版)》编辑部　
地址:山东大学科技期刊社（济南市历城区山大南路27号山东大学中心校区明德楼B座721室） 电话: 0531-88366918 E-mail: xbyxb@sdu.edu.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发