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Association between modifiable cardiovascular risk factors clustering patterns and stroke in the elderly population
- PANG Jinhong, SU Ping, QIAO Junpeng, CHEN Qiaoqiao, CHEN Xueyu, ZHAO Yingying, SHI Jie, SUN Xiaoru, LI Qiuchun, HE Ruiyan, FAN Yiou, CHI Weiwei
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Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences). 2025, 63(9):
11-19.
doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2024.1421
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Objective To explore the gender-specific clustering patterns of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors(MCVRFS)and assess their associations with stroke incidence among the elderly population in Shandong Province. Methods Based on the Cheeloo Lifespan Electronic Health Research Data-library(Cheeloo LEAD)database, 58,633 participants aged ≥60 years old with complete health examination records, electronic medical records, and public health archives from June 1 to December 31, 2015 were included. A seven-year follow-up cohort was constructed, with occurence of stroke as the study endpoint. Latent class analysis(LCA)was used to identify MCVRFS clustering patterns, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to evaluate associations between clusters and stroke risk. Results LCA identified four MCVRFS clusters in both genders. Males comprised the low-risk(39.02%), smoking and alcohol consumption(16.41%), overweight/obesity(36.34%), and metabolic syndrome(8.22%)groups. Females comprised the low-risk(41.00%), smoking and alcohol consumption(0.44%), overweight and dyslipidemia(46.76%), and metabolic syndrome(11.80%)groups. During follow-up, 6,764 new stroke cases occurred in males(incidence density: 4,947/100,000 person-years)and 8,141 in females(incidence density: 4,273/100,000 person-years). Adjusted Cox regression showed that males in smoking and alcohol consumption group(HR=1.13, 95%CI=1.05-1.21), overweight obesity group(HR=1.16, 95%CI=1.09-1.23), and metabolic syndrome group(HR=2.20, 95%CI=2.04-2.38)had elevated stroke risks compared to the low-risk group. In females, overweight and dyslipidemia group(HR=1.16, 95%CI=1.10-1.21)and metabolic syndrome group(HR=2.39, 95%CI=2.25-2.54)showed higher stroke risks compared to the low-risk group. Conclusion Four kinds of gender-specific MCVRFS clustering patterns are identified in Shandongs elderly population. Overweight-obesity, smoking-alcohol, and metabolic syndrome clusters increase stroke risk in males, while weight-dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome clusters elevate risks in females. Targeted intervention strategies tailored to these clusters may reduce stroke incidence and disease burden in the elderly.