Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2023, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (4): 103-110.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1106

• 公共卫生与管理学 • Previous Articles    

MaxEnt modeling to analyze influencing factors of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and predict the potential distribution in Shandong Province

HAN Luyi1*, TIAN Xueying2*, GAO Qi1, SHE Kaili1, CAO Yunxian1, WEI Shushu1, Ding Shujun2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Published:2023-04-11

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Abstract: Objective To explore the appropriate environmental factors for the incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Shandong Province and to predict the potential high-risk areas, so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of SFTS. Methods Based on the data of confirmed SFTS cases and environmental factors in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2019, MaxEnt model was trained to analyze the influencing factors of SFTS, and to predict the high-risk areas of SFTS from 2017 to 2020. Results From 2016 to 2020, 2,548 cases of SFTS were reported in Shandong Province, and 14 environmental factors were found to affect the distribution of SFTS to varying degrees, including slope, which contributed the most, and meteorological factors such as average sunshine duration, annual accumulated precipitation, annual relative humidity and annual average wind speed. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the prediction effects of MaxEnt model was good, with the area under the curve(AUC)being 0.862, 0.842, 0.830, 0.832, and 0.814, respectively. The potential high-risk areas predicted by the model was around the Jiaodong Peninsula and central region of Shandong Province. Conclusion The high-risk areas of SFTS in Shandong Province are relatively stable. SFTS tends to occur in flat slope areas around gentle slopes, and is affected by meteorological factors. Comprehensive measures should be taken to prevent and control SFTS.

Key words: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome, Maximum entropy model, Influencing factors, Risk areas

CLC Number: 

  • R183.5
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