Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (1): 118-125.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.0548

• Public Health and Preventive Medicine • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of hand, foot and mouth disease in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, China

XU Xinying1*, YAN Wei2*, SHI Xinglong1, YUE Fang1, LYU Jing1, QIAO Yingyi1, ZHANG Yuqi1, CHENG Chuanlong1, ZUO Hui1, LI Xiujun1   

  • Published:2026-01-27

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD)at the county level in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, in order to provide a scientific basis for health administrative departments in developing prevention and control strategies. Methods A total of 24,147 reported cases of HFMD in Binzhou City, Shandong Province, were collected from January 1,2015 to December 31,2019, along with meteorological, pollutant and socio-economic data. The temporal, spatial and population distribution characteristics of HFMD were described. Spatial clustering was assessed using the global Morans I index. Bayesian spatio-temporal model was used to identify influencing factors associated with HFMD incidence. Results HFMD incidence in Binzhou City showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2015 to 2019, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 122.57/100,000. The incidence exhibited distinct seasonality characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary autumn peak. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a distinct pattern of incidence, with the central region exhibiting the highest rates and the northern area the lowest. The population distribution showed that the sex ratio was 1.55:1, with HFMD cases was mainly concentrated in children aged 1-3 years, while the number of cases among scattered children was higher than that among kiudergarten children. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling identified positive associations for mean temperature(RR=1.146; 95%CI: 1.102-1.193)and gross domestic product(GDP)(RR=1.001; 95%CI: 1.000-1.003), and a negative association for mean wind speed(RR=0.593; 95%CI: 0.360-0.976). Temperature had a stronger effect on 0-2 years old, and wind speed had a stronger effect on 0-2 years old and males. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD in Binzhou City shows a fluctuating downward trend, with distinct spatial clustering. High temperature and low wind speed are risk factors for HFMD occurrence, with high GDP levels showing a positive correlation with its incidence. It is recommended that health departments enhance monitoring in high-risk areas and vulnerable populations during seasonal epidemic peaks and periods of high temperature, and optimize the allocation of medical resources to reduce the risk of transmission.

Key words: Hand, foot and mouth disease, Spatio-temporal analysis, Bayesian spatio-temporal model, Influencing factors, Incidence risk

CLC Number: 

  • R122
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