Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (3): 116-123.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.0209

• Public Health and Preventive Medicine • Previous Articles    

Short-term effect of PM2.5 on the incidence of tuberculosis based on individual precise exposure assessment

LIAO Yuan1, MEN Dan2, LI Yifan3, LI Huaichen4, LONG Fei3, LIU Yi1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;
    3. Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China;
    4. Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2026-03-19

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the impact of short-term exposure to 2.5-micrometer particulate matter(PM2.5)on the risk of tuberculosis(TB)incidence and its heterogeneity across populations, space, and time, providing a scientific basis for developing targeted public health intervention strategies. Methods Data from 1,207 newly diagnosed TB cases in Jinan from from January 2015 to December 2019 were collected. By integrating machine learning models with geographic information systems, a hundred-meter grid-level PM2.5 exposure assessment model was constructed to precisely estimate individual PM2.5 exposure levels. A time-stratified case-crossover design was employed, and conditional logistic regression was used to analyze the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure(0-3 days lag)and TB incidence, while evaluating effect differences by age, sex, season, and residential area. Results For each 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, the risk of TB incidence increased by 0.45%(95%CI: 0.12%-0.78%)at a 2-day lag(P<0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed significantly higher risks among the elderly(OR=1.14, 95%CI: 0.974-1.32), females(OR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.03-1.11), during cold seasons(OR=1.11, 95%CI: 1.05-1.19), and in rural areas(OR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.08)(P<0.05). Conclusion Short-term PM2.5 exposure significantly increases the risk of TB incidence, with notable heterogeneity across populations and seasons in Jinan, Shandong Province, necessitating targeted prevention and control strategies for high-risk groups and polluted seasons.

Key words: Air pollution, Tuberculosis, Case-crossover design, Machine learning, Geographic information systems

CLC Number: 

  • R122.7
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