Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 42-47.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.309

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Time series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and daily emergency room visits in Zibo City

LIU Xiaoli, LIU Fangying, MENG Chao, LI Ping, ZHANG Dianping, YIN Maorong, ZHAI Shenyong   

  1. Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo 255026, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To explore the association between SO2, NO2, fine particulate matter(PM2.5)pollution and daily emergency room visits in Zibo City. Methods The data of emergency room visits during 2016 and 2017 were collected. The number of non-accidental emergencies and respiratory diseases emergencies were statistically analyzed according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10). After the confounding factors including time 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -刘晓利,等.淄博市大气污染物浓度与急救人次关联的时间序列分析 \=-trends, seasonal trends, day of week(DOW)and meteorological factors were controlled, the excess risk(ER)of daily emergency room visits associated with increased SO2, NO2, PM2.5 levels were analyzed with generalized addictive model(GAM)with Poisson regression. Results During 2016 and 2017, the average daily concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM2.5 were 52.6 μg/m3, 57.0 μg/m3 and 70.4 μg/m3, respectively. The daily emergency room visits was 366.78, of which 63.98 and 8.04 were due to non-accidents and respiratory diseases. The correlation analysis showed that the number of daily emergency room visits was positively correlated with the concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO. In the single-pollutant model, the SO2 and NO2 concentrations had lag effect on the number of non-accidental emergency visits, and lag1 factor had the most significant impact: a 10 μg/m3 increase of SO2 concentration was associated with a 0.423% ER(95%CI: 0.253%-0.601%), and a 10 μg/m3 increase of NO2 was associated with 0.412% ER(95%CI: 0.218%-0.621%). The PM2.5 concentration had lag effect on the number of respiratory diseases emergency visits, and lag3 factor had the most significant impact: a 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 concentration was associated with a 0.314% ER(95%CI: 0.178%-0.533%). The dual-pollutant model indicated that for every 10 μg/m3 rise in SO2 concentration, the ER of non-accidental emergency visits was 0.286%(95%CI: 0.061%-0.519%)and 0.389%(95%CI: 0.229%-0.671%)when PM2.5 and O3 were introduced separately; and for every 10 μg/m3 rise in NO2 concentration, the ER was 0.176%(95%CI: 0.117%-0.561%)and 0.427%(95%CI: 0.287%-0.663%). The dual-pollutant model indicated that for every 10 μg/m3 rise in PM2.5 concentration, the ER of respiratory diseases emergency visits was 0.219%(95%CI:0.128%-0.456%)and 0.193%(95%CI:0.101%-0.429%)when SO2 and NO2 were introduced separately. Conclusion The rise of SO2 and NO2 concentrations in the air may increase the risk of non-accidental emergencies, and the rise of PM2.5 concentration may increase the risk of respiratory diseases emergencies. Efforts should be made to strengthen environmental protection, speed up energy reform, develop clean energies, reduce emissions of pollutants, and promote the health of residents.

Key words: SO2, NO2, fine particulate matter, Emergency visit, Time-series analysis

CLC Number: 

  • X510.2
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