Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 70-75.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.051

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Application of panel data model in screening of drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province

WANG Ning1,2, HUANG Jinming3, DING Guoyong4, LI Xuewen2,5   

  1. 1. Section of Health Promotion, Shandong Provincial Health and Family Planning Publicity and Education Center, Jinan 250002, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Department for Fluorosis and Kaschin-Beck Disease Control and Research, Institute of Endemic Disease Control Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China;
    4. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical University, Taian 271016, Shandong, China;
    5. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To identify drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of the infectious diseases during the drought period. Methods The morbidity of infectious diseases in Hunan Province during the drought period was calculated, and Spearman rank correlation analysis was done to investigate the effects of drought on infectious diseases, in addition, a panel data model was used to screen the drought-sensitive infectious diseases. Results Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that incident number of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, bacillary dysentery, mumps, rubella, varicella and pulmonary tuberculosis were closely correlated 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷8期 -王宁,等.面板数据模型在湖南省干旱敏感传染病筛选中的应用 \=-with drought(all P<0.05), and the corresponding lag periods were 0, 0, 1, 5, 5, 3 and 4 weeks, respectively. The panel data model results showed that drought can increase the risk of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, bacillary dysentery, mumps, rubella and varicella, and the corresponding incidence rate ratios(IRRs)and 95%CI were 1.35(1.29-1.40), 1.40(1.22-1.60), 1.42(1.31-1.54), 1.31(1.18-1.45), 1.70(1.45-2.00)and 2.86(2.55-3.21), respectively. However, drought could reduce the risk of tuberculosis, and IRR(95%CI)was 0.72(0.70-0.74). Conclusion Hepatitis B, hepatitis C, bacillary dysentery, mumps, rubella and varicella are the drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province.

Key words: Drought, Infectious diseases, Screen, Panel data model, Sensitive

CLC Number: 

  • R122.2
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