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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2021, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (12): 151-157.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.1013

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广州市极端降水事件对不同特征人群登革热发病的影响

李传玺1,2,刘起勇2,3,马伟1,2   

  1. 1. 山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系, 山东 济南 250012;2. 山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心, 山东 济南 250012;3. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 北京 102206
  • 发布日期:2021-12-29
  • 通讯作者: 马伟. E-mail:weima@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(82073615);传染病预防控制国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2018SKLID302)

Effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different characteristic populations in Guangzhou

LI Chuanxi1,2, LIU Qiyong2,3, MA Wei1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • Published:2021-12-29

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摘要： 目的 探讨极端降水事件对广州市不同特征人群登革热发病的影响,识别脆弱人群。 方法 收集2015~2019年6~9月广州市气象资料和登革热病例监测资料。采用广义相加模型评估极端降水事件对登革热发病的滞后效应,然后进行亚组分析探究极端降水事件对不同性别、年龄段(<18岁、18~59岁、≥60岁)人群登革热发病的效应差异。 结果 研究期间广州市共报告登革热病例7 228例,周发病中位数22例。极端降水事件在滞后4周时可增加全人群登革热发病风险(RR=1.30,95%CI: 1.10~1.54)。脆弱人群是男性(RR=1.52,95%CI: 1.24~1.87, lag 4)和≥60岁人群(RR=1.99,95%CI: 1.51~2.63, lag 2)。 结论 极端降水事件可增加登革热的发病风险,该效应存在一定的滞后期,男性和老年人是脆弱人群。应加强极端降水事件后的登革热监测和预警,制定相应卫生政策应对极端降水事件发生后登革热的潜在流行风险。

关键词: 极端降水事件, 气象因素, 登革热, 广州市, 广义相加模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different characteristic populations in Guangzhou and to identify the vulnerable populations. Methods Meteorological data and surveillance data of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou from June to September in 2015-2019 were obtained. The lag effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever were evaluated with generalized additive model, and then subgroup analysis was performed to explore the effects of extreme precipitation events on the incidence of dengue fever in different gender and age groups(<18 years, 18-59 years, ≥60 years). Results During the study period, 7,228 dengue fever cases were reported in Guangzhou, with a median of 22 cases per week. Extreme precipitation events increased the risk of dengue fever in the total population at lag 4 week(RR=1.30, 95%CI: 1.10-1.54). The vulnerable populations were males(RR=1.52, 95%CI: 1.24-1.87, lag 4)and people aged over 60 years(RR=1.99, 95%CI: 1.51-2.63, lag 2). Conclusion Extreme precipitation events increase the risk of dengue fever, and the effects have a certain lag period. Males and the elderly are vulnerable populations. The monitoring and early warning of dengue fever after extreme precipitation events should be strengthened, and corresponding health policies should be developed to deal with the potential risk of dengue fever epidemic after extreme precipitation events.

Key words: Extreme precipitation events, Meteorological factors, Dengue fever, Guangzhou, Generalized additive model

中图分类号: 

  • R181.3
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