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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (6): 66-71.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.358

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基于健康管理队列的冠心病风险预测模型

王春霞1,许艺博2,3,杨宁1,夏冰1,王萍4,薛付忠2,3   

  1. 1.济宁医学院附属医院健康管理中心, 山东 济宁 272000;2.山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东 济南 250012;3.山东大学齐鲁生物医学大数据研究中心, 山东 济南 250012;4.山东大学齐鲁医院手术室, 山东 济南 250012
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-26 出版日期:2017-06-10 发布日期:2017-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 薛付忠. E-mail:xuefzh@sdu.edu.cn E-mail:xuefzh@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项项目(2014DFA32830);山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2013WS0230)

A prediction model for coronary heart disease risks based on health management cohort

WANG Chunxia1, XU Yibo2,3, YANG Ning1, XIA Bing1, WANG Ping4, XUE Fuzhong2,3   

  1. 1. Health Management Center, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining 272000, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Cheeloo Research Center for Biomedical Big Data, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    4. Operating Room of Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-04-26 Online:2017-06-10 Published:2017-06-10

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摘要： 目的 构建基于山东省健康管理队列的冠心病风险预测模型。 方法 构建山东省健康管理队列,基于国际上较为通用的冠心病风险预测模型变量,应用Cox比例风险回归模型进行单因素分析,利用竞争风险模型建立心脑血管事件预测模型,使用十折交叉验证法检验模型稳定性。 结果 共纳入队列73 386人,其中男41 968人,女31 418人。队列中位随访时间3.10年。经随访共有1 545人发生冠心病,其中男958人,发病密度为5.95/1 000人年;女587人,发病密度为4.90/1 000人年。建立的男性模型AUC为0.809(95CI: 0.804~0.815),O/E值为0.98;女性模型AUC为0.869(95%CI: 0.863~0.874),O/E值为1.02。经十折交叉内部验证,男性模型AUC为0.806(95%CI: 0.801~0.812),女性为0.866(95%CI: 0.860~0.872)。 结论 构建的冠心病预测模型在健康管理队列中有较好的预测能力。

关键词: 健康管理队列, 风险预测模型, 冠心病

Abstract: Objective To establish a risk predicting model for coronary heart disease in health management cohort in Shandong province. Methods The cohort consisted of the health management cohort in Shandong province. Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to screen the variables based on other predictive models. We used competing risk prediction model to establish the prediction model, and ten-fold cross validation to test the stability of the model. Results There were 73 386 subjects in the cohort, including 41 968 males and 31 418 females. The median follow-up time was 3.10 years. Coronary heart disease occurred in 1 545 sbujects, including 958 males and 587 females. The incidence density was 5.95 per 1 000 person-years for males and 4.90 per 1 000 person-years for females. The AUC of the male model was 0.809(95CI: 0.804-0.815), and the O/E value was 0.98. The AUC of the female model was 0.869(95%CI: 0.863-0.874), and the O/E value was 1.02. In the ten-fold cross validation model, the AUC of the male model was 0.806(95%CI: 0.801-0.812), and the AUC of the female model was 0.866(95%CI: 0.860-0.872). Conclusion The predictive model for coronary heart disease has good predictive ability in the health management cohort.

Key words: Coronary heart disease, Health management cohort, Risk prediction model

中图分类号: 

  • R541.4
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