山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2024, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (6): 96-101.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2024.0082
• 公共卫生与管理学 • 上一篇
梁珂梦1,李树芬1,倪志松1,宋思豪1,席睿1,程传龙1,左慧1,段雨琪1,刘昆2,白尧3,李秀君1
LIANG Kemeng1, LI Shufen1, NI Zhisong1, SONG Sihao1, XI Rui1, CHENG Chuanlong1, ZUO Hui1, DUAN Yuqi1, LIU Kun2, BAI Yao3, LI Xiujun1
摘要: 目的 在5 km×5 km的空间网格尺度上探讨西安市手足口病发病与环境、社会经济因素等的关系,为区域防控措施的制定提供依据。 方法 收集2019年西安市手足口病报告发病率数据,应用空间自相关分析手足口病空间分布特征;基于多尺度地理加权回归(multiscale geographically weighted regression, MGWR)模型分析环境与社会经济因素对手足口病发病的影响,并与普通最小二乘(ordinary least squares, OLS)回归模型以及地理加权回归(geographically weighted regression, GWR)模型结果进行对比。 结果 2019年西安市手足口病年报告发病率为157.99/10万,在空间分布上存在正相关性(全局Morans I=0.349,P<0.001)。MGWR模型拟合度优于GWR模型和OLS模型(MGWR:R2=0.530; GWR:R2=0.473; OLS:R2=0.327)。各影响因素的作用尺度存在一定差异,GDP、土地城镇化水平、平均气温等作用尺度较大,归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI)作用尺度较小。GDP与手足口病报告发病率呈显著负相关,土地城镇化水平、平均气温与报告发病率呈显著正相关,NDVI在西安部分地区对手足口发病有显著负向影响。 结论 环境与社会经济因素对手足口病发病有显著影响,且各影响因素的作用存在空间差异,研究结果可为不同地区制定针对性的预防措施提供依据。
中图分类号:
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