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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (6): 103-108.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1124

• 公共卫生与和管理学 • 上一篇    

基于“中暑”百度搜索指数评价济南市高温热浪健康风险预警模型

刘晶1,2,陈晨2,王彦文2,崔亮亮3,韩丹丹1,李湉湉2   

  1. 1.河北省公共卫生安全重点实验室 河北大学公共卫生学院, 河北 保定 071002;2.中国疾病预防控制中心环境与人群健康重点实验室 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所, 北京 100021;3.济南市疾病预防控制中心环境健康所, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2023-06-06
  • 通讯作者: 韩丹丹. E-mail:hdd@hbu.edu.cn李湉湉. E-mail:litiantian@nieh.chinacdc.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(92143202);中国疾病预防控制中心环境所青年科学基金(2020YSRF_02)

Evaluation on heat-health risk warning in Jinan based on Baidu heat stroke search index

LIU Jing1,2, CHEN Chen2, WANG Yanwen2, CUI Liangliang3, HAN Dandan1, LI Tiantian2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Hebei Province, College of Public Health, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, Hebei, China;
    2. China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China;
    3. Department of Environmental Health, Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2023-06-06

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摘要： 目的 基于“中暑”百度搜索指数(HSSI)评价济南市高温热浪健康风险预警(HHRW)模型的适用性,为其推广应用提供科学依据。 方法 收集济南市2018至2020年夏季(6~9月)HSSI和气象因素数据。采用广义线性模型分析预警等级分布与HSSI的关联性(β值),探讨各预警等级下的中暑发生风险。 结果 HHRW预警中重点关注、黄色、橙色、红色预警的频数分别为170、17、12、5。重点关注阶段评价结果显示,相较于一般关注,重点关注及以上阶段的β值为77.4(95%CI: 58.6~96.2)。预警阶段评价结果显示,相较于一般关注,重点关注和预警阶段的β值分别为69.7(95%CI: 55.0~84.4)、232.1(95%CI: 207.2~257.1)。三级预警评价结果显示,相较于一般关注,黄色、橙色、红色预警的β值分别为193.4(95%CI: 164.8~221.9)、254.2(95%CI: 220.6~287.8)、346.1(95%CI: 296.6~395.6)。HHRW与中国气象局的高温预警(HTW)的比较结果显示,HSSI与HHRW预警等级分布之间呈显著关联,而与HTW预警之间无显著关联。 结论 HHRW预警等级分布与中暑发生风险具有良好的递增关系,提示以死亡风险为核心建立的预警分级模式也适用于夏季中暑发生风险的预警。

关键词: 中暑, 百度搜索指数, 热浪, 预警

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the sensitivity of the heat-health risk warning(HHRW)model in Jinan based on the heat stroke search index(HSSI), and to provide scientific basis for its popularization and application. Methods The HSSI and meteorological data during summer(June to September)of 2018 to 2020 in Jinan were collected. The association(β value)between the distribution of warning ranks and HSSI was analyzed with generalized linear model, and the occurrence of heat stroke in different warning levels was explored. Results In the HHRW model, the frequency of key concern, yellow, orange and red warning levels were 170, 17, 12 and 5, respectively. The evaluation results of the key concern level showed that, the β value of key concern level and above was 77.4(95%CI: 58.6-96.2). The evaluation results of the warning level showed that, the β value of key concern level and warning level were 69.7(95%CI: 55.0-84.4)and 232.1(95%CI: 207.2-257.1), respectively. The evaluation results of the three-level warning showed that, the β value of yellow, orange and red warning levels were 193.4(95%CI: 164.8-221.9), 254.2(95%CI: 220.6-287.8)and 346.1(95%CI: 296.6-395.6), respectively. The comparison between HHRW and high temperature warning(HTW)of the China Meteorological Administration showed a significant association between HSSI and HHRW, but not between HSSI and HTW. Conclusion There was a good increasing relationship between the distribution of HHRW warning ranks and the occurrence of heat stroke, suggesting that the HHRW model based on death risk is also suitable for heat stroke risk warning during summer.

Key words: Heat stroke, Baidu search index, Heatwave, Early warning

中图分类号: 

  • R122.2
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