Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2023, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (5): 84-89.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1204

• 公共卫生与管理学 • Previous Articles    

Trend and disease burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in China from 1990 to 2019

ZHANG Meng, MA Wei   

  1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2023-05-15

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Abstract: Objective To analyze the situation, disease burden and risk factors of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS)in China from 1990 to 2019 and to forecast the incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2030. Methods The situation of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 was explored and its temporal trend of incidence and disease burden were analyzed with Joinpoint regression. The trend of incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2030 were predicted with Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model integrated with nested Laplace approximations. Results The age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of HIV/AIDS in China in males were higher than those in females. The age-standardized incidence showed an increasing trend in people aged 15 to 19 years and 20 to 24 years, and showed the largest variation in people aged 75 to 79 years. The age-standardized incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate of HIV/AIDS in China increased from 1990 to 2019 and there were statistically significant differences(P<0.001); the age-standardized DALYs rate of HIV/AIDS attributable to unsafe sex was the highest. The BAPC predicted that the age-standardized mortality rate of HIV/AIDS in China in males would increase from 2020 to 2030. Conclusion The risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in adolescents continues to increase in China and the risk of mortality in elderly should not be ignored. The disease burden of HIV/AIDS shows an increasing trend and unsafe sex is the primary risk factor. In the future, prevention and control measures should be taken for the key population.

Key words: Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, Disease burden, Risk factors, Temporal trend, Prediction

CLC Number: 

  • R181.2
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