Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2023, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (5): 79-83.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1162

• 临床医学 • Previous Articles    

Efficacy of terminal patient condition assessment form in predicting survival time of terminal patients

CAI Qiang1, SHAN Tichao2, WU Han3   

  1. 1. Department of General Internal Medicine, Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Critical Medicine, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    3. Department of Geriatric Medicine, Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital, Jinan 250001, Shandong, China
  • Published:2023-05-15

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Abstract: Objective To evaluate the efficacy of Terminal Patient Condition Assessment Form in predicting the survival time of terminal patients. Methods Clinical data of 26 terminal patients admitted to the geriatric ward of Shandong Electric Power Central Hospital during Apr. 2020 and Feb. 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The match rate between predicted and actual survival time was calculated, and the rationality of score threshold for predicting survival time less than 30 d was determined. The survival curve was drawn and the influence of each predicting factor on survival time was investigated. The vital signs and other indicators were scored with the Terminal Patient Condition Assessment Form, the total scores were obtained, and the correlation between the scores and survival time was analyzed. Results The match rate of assessment at admission was 65.38%. Some predicting items included warning indicators. The match rate of warning indicators in predicting survival time less than 3 d was 100%. The most common warning indicators were the changes of consciousness(76.92%), systolic blood pressure <80 mmHg(38.46%), and respiratory rate>30/min(26.92%). The sensitivity and specificity of 50 points as score threshold for predicting survival time less than 30 d were 77.78% and 83.33%, respectively; the positive and negative predictive value were 93.33% and 55.55%, respectively; the Youden index was 0.61. There was significant difference in survival time between the group with score ≤50 points and group with score >50 points(P=0.021). Cox analysis showed scores of respiratory(HR=0.609, 95%CI:0.381-0.973), pulse(HR=0.615, 95%CI:0.426-0.889)and organ status(HR=0.362, 95%CI:0.170-0.773)had significant effects on survival time(P<0.05). Conclusion Terminal Patient Condition Assessment Form can accurately predict the survival time of terminal patients with advanced cancer, chronic organ failures, dementia and so on.

Key words: Terminal Patient Condition Assessment Form, Terminal patient, Prediction of survival time, Warning indicators, Palliative care

CLC Number: 

  • R48
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