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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 53-60.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.356

• • 上一篇    

无锡市大气污染对成人内科门诊量影响的时间序列研究

游颖琦1,2,朱晶颖2,张旭辉2,张熙2,周伟杰1,2   

  1. 1.南京医科大学公共卫生学院, 江苏 南京 211166;2.无锡市疾病预防控制中心, 江苏 无锡 214023
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 周伟杰. E-mail:839997246@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省无锡市卫生计生委面上项目(MS201502);无锡市科技局项目(CSE31N1722)

Impact of air pollution on the outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Wuxi City: a time series study

YOU Yingqi1,2, ZHU Jingying2, ZHANG Xuhui2, ZHANG Xi2, ZHOU Weijie1,2   

  1. 1. School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China;
    2.Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi 214023, Jiangsu, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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摘要： 目的 探讨大气污染物对成人内科门诊量的影响,为预防大气污染物对人群的健康损害提供科学依据。 方法 收集2015年1月1日至2016年12月31日无锡市大气污染物数据、呼吸和循环系统疾病日门诊量资料,采用时间序列Poisson分布的广义相加模型(GAM)方法,在控制长期和季节变化趋势、星期几效应、气象因素和其他污染物等各种混杂因素的基础上,定量分析大气污染物对呼吸、循环系统疾病日门诊量的影响。 结果 2015年1月1日至2016年12月31日无锡市PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2对呼吸、循环系统疾病日门诊量的影响存在滞后及累积效应。PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2均在滞后0~5 d(lag05)的移动平均值,使呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的超额危险度(ER)达到最大,其中PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病日门诊量增加0.44%(95%CI:0.08%~0.80%)、0.47%(95%CI:0.22%~0.72%)、3.85%(95%CI:2.73%~4.98%)、2.63%(95%CI:2.00%~3.26%);PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2分别在滞后0~1 d(lag01)、0~1 d(lag01)、0~4 d(lag04)、0~4 d(lag04)的移动平均值,使循环系统疾病日门诊量的ER达到最大,其中PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3,循环系统疾病日门诊量增加0.68%(95%CI:0.52%~0.84%)、0.46%(95%CI:0.34%~0.58%)、6.41%(95%CI:5.66%~7.17%)、4.22%(95%CI:3.81%~4.63%)。 结论 大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2浓度的增加与居民呼吸、循环系统疾病门诊人数增加风险有关。

关键词: 时间序列研究, 大气污染, 呼吸系统疾病, 循环系统疾病, 门诊量

Abstract: Objective To explore the effect of air pollutants on the outpatient visits in adult internal medicine, and to provide a scientific basis for preventing the health damage of air pollutants to the population. Methods Data of atmospheric pollutants, daily outpatient visits of respiratory and circulatory diseases in Wuxi City from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016 were collected. The generalized additive model(GAM)method of time series Poisson distribution was used to control the mixing of long-term and seasonal variation trends, days of the week effect, meteorological factors and other pollutants. On the basis of impurity factors, the influence of air pollutants on the outpatient visits of respiratory and circulatory diseases was quantitatively analyzed. Results The effects of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 on the daily outpatient visits of respiratory and circulatory diseases in Wuxi City from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016 were hysteretic and cumulative. PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 were all lagged behind the moving average of 0-5 days(lag05), 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -游颖琦,等.无锡市大气污染对成人内科门诊量影响的时间序列研究 \=-so that the excess risk(ER)of the daily outpatient visits of respiratory diseases reached the maximum, in which the daily outpatient visits of respiratory diseases increased by respective 0.44%(95% CI: 0.08%-0.80%), 0.47%(95%CI: 0.22%-0.72%), 3.85%(95%CI: 2.73%-4.98%)and 2.63%(95%CI: 2.00%-3.26%)with their concentration increase per 10 μg/m3. The moving average values of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 were lagged 0-1 days(lag01), 0-1 days(lag01), 0-4 days(lag04), 0-4 days(lag04), respectively, which made the ER of the daily outpatient visits of circulatory system disease reach the maximum. With the concentration increase per 10 μg/m3, the daily outpatient visits of circulatory system diseases increased by 0.68%(95%CI: 0.52%-0.84%), 0.46%(95%CI: 0.34%-0.58%), 6.41%(95%CI: 5.66%-7.17%)and 4.22%(95%CI: 3.81%-4.63%). Conclusion Increased concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2 of air pollutants are associated with increased risk of outpatient visits in respiratory and circulatory diseases.

Key words: Time series research, Air pollution, Respiratory disease, Circulatory disease, Outpatient visits

中图分类号: 

  • R122.7
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