数学方程法对足月胎儿出生体质量的预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.703

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的建立新的预测足月胎儿出生体质量(FW)的回归方程;比较新建方程与现有19种方程(5种临床参数方程及14种超声参数方程)的准确性。方法选取2015年10月~2016年4月于产前0~5 d在华北理工大学附属医院进行超声检查并住院分娩的单胎孕足月孕妇224例,收集孕妇的临床及超声资料。根据胎儿实际体质量,分为非巨大儿组(FW<4 000 g,n=183)和巨大儿组(FW≥4 000 g,n=41)。使用绝对误差评价不同方程预测FW的准确性。采用Pearson相关性分析及多重线性回归法建立新的回归方程,方差分析、LSD检验比较不同方程准确性。结果新建立了3个方程:临床参数方程、超声参数方程、联合参数方程。在非巨大儿组、巨大儿组及整体中预测FW绝对误差最小的均为联合参数方程:EFW = 40.39×宫高+84.60×AC+244.17×TCD+221.79×FSTT+141.98×LL+127.31×BPD-4 467.98。5种临床参数方程中,预测FW绝对误差最小的分别为卓晶如法(非巨大儿组、整体)和罗来敏法(巨大儿组);14种超声参数方程中,在非巨大儿组及整体中绝对误差最小的方程均为Hadlock FP(BPD, HC, AC, FL)法;在巨大儿组中为Merz E(BPD, AC)法。与已知方程相比,新建立的联合参数方程绝对误差最小(P<0.05)。结论联合参数方程可以较准确地预测FW,且与已知的19种方程比较,其预测FW的绝对误差最小。

关键词: 足月, 绝对误差, 胎儿体质量, 准确性, 回归方程

Abstract: Objective To establish a new accurate equation and to compare the accuracy with 19 kinds of known equations(5 clinical parameter equations and 14 ultrasonic parameter equations)for estimation of the birth weight of term fetus(FW). Methods A total of 224 term pregnant women with singleton between October 2015 and April 2016 in the North China University of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital were included in the present study. They were divided into macrosomia group(FW<4 000 g, n=183)and non-macrosomia group(FW≥4 000 g, n=41). An ultrasound examination was performed 5 days before delivery. Clinical data and ultrasound data were collected. The data were analyzed with Pearson correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, and LSD test. Results Three new equations were established: clinical parameter equation, ultrasonic parameter equation and joint parameter equation. Among them, the joint parameter equation showed the smallest absolute error in different groups, EFW(estimated FW)= 40.39×fundal height+84.60×AC+244.17×TCD+221.79×FSTT+141.98×LL+127.31×BPD-4 467.98. Among the 5 kinds of clinical parameter equations, Zhuo Jingru equation for the macrosomia group and the overall subjects, and Luo Laimin equation for the non-macrosomia group showed the smallest absolute error. Among the 14 kinds of ultrasound parameter equations, Hadlock FP(BPD, HC, AC, FL)for macrosomia group and the overall subjects, and Merz E(BPD, AC)for non-macrosomia group showed smallest absolute error. Conclusion The new established joint parameter equation can estimate FW more accurately.

Key words: Absolute error, Term, Regression equation, Fetal weight, Accuracy

中图分类号:

R445.1

张曼,马琳,阚艳敏. 数学方程法对足月胎儿出生体质量的预测[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2017, 55(1): 92-96.

ZHANG Man, MA Lin, KAN Yanmin. Estimation of birth weight of term fetus based on mathematical equations[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(1): 92-96.

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