JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES) ›› 2016, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (12): 77-81.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.469

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Seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shandong Province during 2008 and 2014 analyzed with concentration and circular distribution methods

LIU Hongyang, XIAO Jinhuan, WANG Fan, YANG Guang, LIU Hongqing   

  1. Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-04-26 Online:2016-12-10 Published:2016-12-10

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Abstract: Objective To explore the seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2014. Methods The surveillance data of HFMD in 2008-2014 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease reporting system of Shandong Province to analyze the seasonal characteristics. Results The average annual growth rate of HFMD was 22.96%, rising from 35.02/10 million to 121.01/10 million. Of the total reports, the number of cases reported in May to July accounted for 51.29%(188564/367655). The M value was 0.42, indicating that HFMD had a seasonal tendency. The circular distribution showed γ value was 0.42, (-overα)=185.196° ［(110.216°, 260.176°), P<0.01］, indicating that the peak day was in June 8th, and the epidemic peak was March 22nd to August 24th. There was statistically significant difference in the average angle during 2008 and 2014(F=2 401.14, P<0.01), indicating that the peak day was different in each year. The M value was highly correlated with γ value(r=1.000, P<0.01). Conclusion Hand, foot and mouth disease has a certain seasonal characteristics in Shandong Pro-vince from 2008 to 2014. The epidemic peak is March to August, and the duration of each year is different.

Key words: Concentration method, Circular distribution, Hand, foot and mouth disease, Seasonality

CLC Number: 

  • R183.3
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