2010~2018年山东省流感发病的季节性特征

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2019.584

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2010年1月至2018年12月山东省流感发病的季节性特征,为流感防控措施的制定提供科学依据。方法整理2010~2018年山东省流感疫情月报告数据,采用集中度法、圆形分布法和季节指数法分别对其进行分析。结果 2010~2018年山东省流感发病例数整体呈上升趋势(χ2=21 625,P<0.001),各年度疫情集中度分别为0.56、0.33、0.33、0.37、0.48、0.34、0.48、0.53、0.62。流感发病高峰日为每年的1月14日,高峰期为11月28日~3月1日。不同年份发病高峰日差异有统计学意义(F=347.13,P<0.001)。不同月份的季节指数均不相同,1月份季节指数(253%)最大,6月份季节指数(27%)最小。结论山东省流感发病存在一定的季节性特征,建议在疫情流行高峰期做好防控措施。

关键词: 流感, 季节性特征, 圆形分布法, 季节指数

Abstract: Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of influenza incidence in Shandong Province from January 2010 to December 2018, and to provide scientific basis for the formulation of influenza prevention and control measures. Methods The monthly report data of influenza epidemic in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2018 were sorted out by the concentration, circular distribution and seasonal index methods. Results The number of influenza cases in Shandong Province was on the rise from 2010 to 2018(χ2=21 625, P<0.001), and the annuary epidemic concentration value was 0.56, 0.33, 0.33, 0.37, 0.48, 0.34, 0.48, 0.53 and 0.62, respectively. The peak date of influenza incidence was January 14 in each year, and the peak period was from November 28 to March 1. The difference of the peak dates in different years was statistically significant(F=347.13, P<0.001). Seasonal indices of different months varied with the maximum being 253% in January and the minimum being 27% in June. Conclusion The influenza incidence in Shandong Province has seasonal characteristics, which suggests that prevention and control measures should be taken at the peak of the epidemic.

Key words: Influenza, Seasonal characteristics, Circular distribution method, Seasonal index

中图分类号:

R183

修璟威,李望晨,崔庆霞,吴炳义,王在翔. 2010~2018年山东省流感发病的季节性特征[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(1): 112-117.

XIU Jingwei, LI Wangchen, CUI Qingxia, WU Bingyi, WANG Zaixiang. Seasonal characteristics of influenza incidence in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2018[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(1): 112-117.

参考文献

[1] 尤爱国, 杨建华, 胡艳, 等. 信阳市发热伴血小板减少综合征发病季节性特征研究[J]. 现代预防医学, 2016, 43(15): 2689-2691, 2699. YOU Aiguo, YANG Jianhua, HU Yan, et al. Seasonal characteristics of fever, thrombocytopenia and leucopenia syndrome, Xinyang City[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2016, 43(15): 2689-2691, 2699.
[2] 马萍, 王学良, 田小萍, 等. 陕西省2005~2009年流行性感冒监测分析[J]. 中国初级卫生保健, 2011, 25(3): 65-67. MA Ping, WANG Xueliang, TIAN Xiaoping, et al. Analysis of influenza surveillance in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2009[J]. Chinese Primary Health Care, 2011, 25(3): 65-67.
[3] 赵金华, 石燕, 曹海兰, 等. 高原地区青海省2017~2018年度流感样病例流行病学特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(1): 39-44. ZHAO Jinhua, SHI Yan, CAO Hailan, et al. Surveillance analysis on influenza-like illness from 2017 to 2018 in the plateau of Qinghai Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, 2019, 23(1): 39-44.
[4] 黄婷, 程秀伟, 周丽君, 等. 2004~2016年四川省流感暴发疫情流行病学分析[J].现代预防医学, 2018, 45(4): 591-595, 599. HUANG Ting, CHENG Xiuwei, ZHOU Lijun, et al. Epidemiological analysis of influenza outbreaks in Sichuan Province from 2004 to 2016[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2018, 45(4): 591-595, 599.
[5] 陈计智, 潘凯. 山东召开中医药防治流感培训会议[J].中医药管理杂志, 2019, 27(3): 77. Doi: CNKI:SUN:ZYYG.0.2019-03-044.
[6] 饶华祥, 石燕, 蔡芝锋, 等. 基于集中度和圆形分布法的青海省手足口病季节特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志, 2018, 22(4): 345-348. RAO Huaxiang, SHI Yan, CAI Zhifeng, et al. Analysis on seasonal distribution characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease in Qinghai Province based on the concentration and circular distribution method[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, 2018, 22(4): 345-348.
[7] 刘继锋, 王文宇, 卓朋涛, 等. 应用集中度和圆形分布法分析西安市2010~2013年手足口病的季节性特征[J].现代预防医学, 2015, 42(20): 3655-3657.
[8] 毛龙飞, 何茶清. 集中度和圆形分布法在传染病季节性特征分析中的应用[J].中国卫生统计, 2014, 31(2): 251-253. MAO Longfei, HE Chaqing. Application of concentration ratio and circular distribution method to analyze the seasonal characteristics of infectious diseases[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2014, 31(2): 251-253.
[9] 康育慧, 崔咏梅, 曹文君. 应用集中度和圆形分布法分析2011~2016年长治市手足口病季节性特征[J].中国预防医学杂志, 2018, 19(8): 569-572. KANG Yuhui, CUI Yongmei, CAO Wenjun. Analysis on seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease by using concentration ration and circular distribution methods in Changzhi in 2011-2016[J]. China Preventive Medicine, 2018, 19(8): 569-572.
[10] 张宇斐, 申思, 盖小荣, 等. 北京市某大型综合医院门诊量变化动态分析及预测[J].中国卫生统计, 2018, 35(4): 590-592. ZHANG Yufei, SHEN Si, GAI Xiaorong, et al. Dynamic analysis and prediction of outpatient volume in a large general hospital in Beijing[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2018, 35(4): 590-592.
[11] 刘洋. 基于季节指数的入院患者变动规律分析[J].中国卫生统计, 2017, 34(4): 644-645. LIU Yang. Analysis on the variation of hospitalized patients based on seasonal index[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2017, 34(4): 644-645.
[12] 张晓梅, 王梅, 林艺, 等. 2007~2008年度山东省流感监测资料分析[J]. 预防医学论坛, 2009, 15(10): 950-953. ZHANG Xiaomei, WANG Mei, LIN Yi, et al. Analysis of influenza surveillance in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2008[J]. Preventive Medicine Tribune, 2009, 15(10): 950-953.
[13] 宋绍霞, 王宇路, 张圣洋, 等. 2009~2012年山东省流感样病例流行病学及病原学特征分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2014, 41(19): 3466-3469. SONG Shaoxia, WANG Yulu, ZHANG Shengyang, et al. Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of influenza-like cases in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2012[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2014, 41(19): 3466-3469.
[14] 宋绍霞, 林艺, 王宇路, 等. 2005~2011年山东省流行性感冒监测结果与分析[J]. 疾病监测, 2012, 27(1): 42-45, 58. SONG Shaoxia, LIN Yi, WANG Yulu, et al. Surveillance of influenza in Shandong Province, 2005-2011[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2012, 27(1): 42-45, 58.
[15] 王伟. 2009~2014年山东省流感样病例流行特征及其与气象因素关系研究[D]. 济南:山东大学, 2016.
[16] 马贵凤, 祝洁, 曹慧军, 等. 2013~2018年我国流感流行特征分析[J]. 中国病原生物学杂志, 2019, 14(1): 73-77. MA Guifeng, ZHU Jie, CAO Huijun, et al. Epidemiological analysis of influenza virus in China from 2013 to 2018[J]. Journal of Pathogen Biology, 2019, 14(1): 73-77.
[17] 孙佰红, 王璐璐, 于伟, 等. 辽宁省2010~2014年流感流行特征及变化趋势[J].中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(1): 45-47. SUN Baihong, WANG Lulu, YU Wei, et al. Variation tendency and epidemiologic characteristics of influenza in Liaoning Province, 2010-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(1): 45-47.
[18] Moura FE, Perdig(~overa)o AC, Siqueira MM. Seasonality of influenza in the tropics: a distinct pattern in nortlieastern Brazil[J]. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2009, 81(1): 180-183.
[19] 任飞林, 仝振东, 唐安, 等. 应用圆形分布法分析舟山市手足口病发病高峰变化[J]. 浙江预防医学, 2014, 26(7): 683-686. REN Feilin, TONG Zhendong, TANG An, et al. The circular distribution analysis on peak changes of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhoushan City[J]. Zhejiang Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2014, 26(7): 683-686.
[20] 唐咸艳, 周颖, 李峤, 等. 不同统计方法在手足口病季节性分析中的比较研究[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2015, 32(3): 410-413. TANG Xianyan, ZHOU Ying, LI Qiao, et al. Comparison of statistical methods for detecting seasonality of HFMD[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2015, 32(3): 410-413.
[21] 卢晶. 2009~2012年通化市手足口病季节性特征分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2015, 42(4): 735-736, 747. LU Jing. Analysis on seasonal characteristics of HFMD in Tonghua City from 2009 to 2012[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2015, 42(4): 735-736, 747.
[22] 吴小清, 徐庆, 苏晶晶, 等. 集中度和圆形分布法在分析南京市主要传染病的季节特征中的应用[J]. 职业与健康, 2015, 31(1): 74-76. WU Xiaoqing, XU Qing, SU Jingjing, et al. Application of concentration and circular distribution method in analyzing the seasonal characteristics of main infectious diseases in Nanjing City[J]. Occupation and Health, 2015, 31(1): 74-76.
[23] 吴莉, 乔方圆, 李源晖, 等. 2004~2012年全国肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性分析[J]. 江苏预防医学, 2014, 25(1): 19-22. WU Li, QIAO Fangyuan, LI Yuanhui, et al. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering analysis on tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2012[J]. Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2014, 25(1): 19-22.
[24] 赵萌萌, 刘洋, 石锋, 等. 某院2010~2015年门诊量变化动态分析[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2016, 33(6): 1005-1007. ZHAO Mengmeng, LIU Yang, SHI Feng, et al. Dynamic analysis of outpatient volume change in a hospital from 2010 to 2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 2016, 33(6): 1005-1007.
[25] 李科峰, 仝振东, 李鹏, 等. 舟山市呼吸道传染病季节特征的圆形分布法分析[J]. 预防医学, 2018, 30(10): 1016-1020. LI Kefeng, TONG Zhendong, LI Peng, et al. Circular distribution analysis on seasonal characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases in Zhoushan[J]. Preventive Medicine, 2018, 30(10): 1016-1020.

多维度评价

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed