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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 63 ›› Issue (11): 98-104.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.0145

• 公共卫生与预防医学 • 上一篇    

2020—2023年德州市低温与急救呼叫频次的关联及大气PM2.5组分的修饰效应

孙淑凡1,钟毓2,赵琦1,曲一楠1,王骋3,王冬梅2   

  1. 1.山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院流行病学系, 山东 济南 250012;2.德州市疾病预防控制中心, 山东 德州 253016;3.山东大学医学融合与实践中心, 山东 济南 250012
  • 发布日期:2025-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 王冬梅. E-mail:wdm5157@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(42205179);山东省优秀青年基金(海外)(2022HWYQ-055)

Association between low-temperature exposure and emergency call frequency in Dezhou City from 2020 to 2023: modification effect of ambient PM2.5 components

SUN Shufan1, ZHONG Yu2, ZHAO Qi1, QU Yinan1, WANG Cheng3, WANG Dongmei2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Dezhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Dezhou 253016, Shandong, China;
    3. Medical Integration and Practice Center, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2025-11-28

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摘要： 目的 探讨山东省德州市冷季低温暴露与急救呼叫频次的关联,评估细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM2.5)及其组分对该关联的修饰效应,为应对不良大气环境的健康风险提供依据。 方法 收集德州市2020—2023年急救呼叫数据和同期气象数据,采用嵌套分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear models, DLNM)的广义加性模型(generalized additive model, GAM)分析冷季(11月至次年2月)低温暴露与急救呼叫频次的关联程度,通过将PM2.5及组分与气温建立乘积项探究其修饰效应。 结果 2020—2023年冷季德州市总急救呼叫频次共150 408次。研究期间日平均温度(1.52±6.23)℃,PM2.5日平均质量浓度57.60±53.65 μg/m3。累积低温暴露与急救呼叫频次的关联曲线近似“U”型(滞后0~30 d),极端低温暴露(-6.03 ℃)和中度低温暴露(-1.02 ℃)对应的急救呼叫相对风险(relative risk, RR)及95%CI分别为1.61(1.36~1.91)和1.40(1.27~1.54)。在极端低温暴露时,黑碳和有机物可增加低温相关急救呼叫风险(P<0.05);在中度低温暴露时,PM2.5及组分可增加低温相关急救呼叫风险(P<0.01)。 结论 山东省德州市冷季低温暴露与急救呼叫频次增加显著相关,高浓度PM2.5及其组分可增强低温暴露-急救呼叫频次的关联强度。

关键词: 低温, PM2.5组分, 修饰效应, 急救呼叫

Abstract: Objective To investigate the association between low-temperature exposure and emergency call frequency during the cold season in Dezhou City, Shandong Province, China, and to evaluate the modification effects of fine particulate matter(PM2.5)and its components on this relationship, with the aim of providing addressing health risks associated with adverse atmospheric environments. Methods Emergency call data and meteorological data from Dezhou City during 2020-2023 were collected. The impact of low-temperature exposure during the cold-season(November to next February)on emergency call frequency was assessed using a generalized additive model(GAM)with distributed lag non-linear models(DLNM). The modifying effects were explored by including interaction terms between temperature and PM2.5 and its components. Results A total of 150, 408 emergency calls were recorded during the cold season from 2020 to 2023 in Dezhou City. The daily average temperature during the study period was(1.52±6.23)℃, and the daily average concentrations of PM2.5 was 57.60±53.65 μg/m3. The cumulative exposure-response curve between low-temperature exposure and emergency call frequency over 0-30 days displayed an approximate “U” shape. The relative risks(RR)and 95% confidence interval(CI)for emergency calls corresponding to extreme low-temperature exposure(-6.03 ℃)and moderate low-temperature exposure(-1.02 ℃)were 1.61(1.36-1.91)and 1.40(1.27-1.54), respectively. Under extreme low-temperature exposure, black carbon and organic matter significantly increased the low-temperature-related risk of emergency calls(P<0.05). Under moderate low-temperature exposure, PM2.5 and components significantly elevated the low-temperature-related risk of emergency calls(P<0.01). Conclusion Cold-season low-temperature exposure was positively associated with emergency call frequency in Dezhou City, Shandong Province. High concentrations of PM2.5 and its components exacerbated the strength of association.

Key words: Low temperature, Components of PM2.5, Modifying effects, Emergency calls

中图分类号: 

  • R122
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