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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (9): 60-67.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.1313

• 公共卫生与预防医学 • 上一篇    

2019—2023年济南市空气污染物对流行性感冒的短期效应

王蔚茹1,孙湛2,孟中华3,吴虹3,张鑫3,常彩云4,郑敏3   

  1. 济南市疾病预防控制中心 1.应急保障部;2. 质量控制部;3. 理化检验所;4. 科研教育部, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2026-09-09
  • 通讯作者: 郑敏. E-mail:mzheng1028@163.com孙湛. E-mail:jncdcsz@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省医药卫生科技项目(202412010144);济南市卫生健康委员会科技发展计划项目(2025306004)

Short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza in Jinan, 2019-2023

WANG Weiru1, SUN Zhan2, MENG Zhonghua3, WU Hong3, ZHANG Xin3, CHANG Caiyun4, ZHENG Min3   

  1. 1. Department of Emergency Support;
    2. Department of Quality Control;
    3. Institute of Physical and Chemical Inspection;
    4. Department of Scientific Research and Education, Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2026-09-09

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摘要： 目的 评估2019—2023年济南市气象因素和大气污染物对流行性感冒(简称“流感”)病例数的短期影响,为完善流感预警和制定防控策略提供依据。 方法 收集2019年1月至2023年12月济南市大气污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、O3和CO)日均质量浓度、日均气温、相对湿度和平均风速等气象数据,以及同期医疗机构报告的流感病例数据。采用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model, DLNM)分析环境污染物对流感发病数的暴露反应关系和滞后效应。 结果 2019—2023年济南市共报告46 247例流感病例,日均25例。PM2.5、PM10、SO2的日均质量浓度变化对总人群流感发病风险的影响有统计学意义,每增加10 μg/m3,累积发病数分别增加1.208%、2.135%和0.383%。SO2、CO、NO2和O3在滞后当天的效应最明显,ER(95%CI)分别为0.103(0.063~0.144)、0.007(0.001~0.014)、0.018(0.004~0.033)和0.014(0.008~0.020);PM2.5和PM10在滞后10 d的效应最强,ER(95%CI)分别为0.098(0.017~0.186)和0.213(0.089~0.352)。 结论 济南市气象因素和大气污染物浓度的变化对流感病例数具有短期效应,应建立气象与污染风险预警机制。

关键词: 大气污染物, 气象因素, 流行性感冒, 分布滞后非线性模型

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the short-term effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on influenza cases in Jinan City from 2019 to 2023, and to provide evidence for improving influenza early warning and prevention strategies. Methods Daily average mass concentrations of air pollutants(PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO), daily average temperature, relative humidity, and average wind speed in Jinan from January 2019 to December 2023, as well as influenza case data reported by medical institutions during the same period, were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship and lag effects of environmental pollutants on influenza incidence. Results A total of 46,247 influenza cases was reported in Jinan from 2019 to 2023, with an average of 25 cases per day. The daily average mass concentration changes of PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 had statistically significant effects on the risk of influenza incidence. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 was associated with 1.208%, 2.135%, and 0.383% increases in cumulative influenza cases, respectively. SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 had the strongest effects on the same day, with ER(95%CI)of 0.103(0.063-0.144), 0.007(0.001-0.014), 0.018(0.004-0.033), and 0.014(0.008-0.020), respectively. The effects of PM2.5 and PM10 were strongest at lag 10 d, with ER(95%CI)of 0.098(0.017-0.186)and 0.213(0.089-0.352), respectively. Conclusion Meteorological factors and air pollutant concentrations have short-term effects on influenza cases in Jinan. A risk warning mechanism for meteorology and air pollution should be established.

Key words: Air pollutants, Meteorological factors, Influenza, Distributed lag non-linear model

中图分类号: 

  • R183.3
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