Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2024, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (6): 96-101.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2024.0082

• Public Health & Management Sciences • Previous Articles    

Influencing factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xian based on MGWR model

LIANG Kemeng1, LI Shufen1, NI Zhisong1, SONG Sihao1, XI Rui1, CHENG Chuanlong1, ZUO Hui1, DUAN Yuqi1, LIU Kun2, BAI Yao3, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Department of Epidemiology, School of Military Prerention Medicine, Air Force Medical University, Xian 710032, Shaanxi, China;
    3. Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention, Xian Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xian 710054, Shaanxi, China
  • Published:2024-07-15

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the relationship between the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and factors related to environment and socioeconomic in Xian at a spatial grid scale of 5 km, and provide a basis for the development of regional control and prevention measures. Methods The 2019 HFMD report data in Xian were collected and analyzed by spatial autocorrelation to characterize the spatial distribution. The role of natural environmental factors and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of HFMD was analyzed based on a multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model and compared with those of the ordinary least square(OLS)regression model and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model. Results The annual reported incidence rate of HFMD in Xian in 2019 was 157.99/100,000, with a positive correlation in spatial distribution(global Morans I=0.349, P<0.001). The MGWR model fit was better than the GWR model and the OLS model(MGWR: R2=0.530; GWR: R2=0.473; OLS: R2=0.327). On the scale of influence, the GDP, land urbanization level, and average temperature had larger scale effects, while normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)had smaller scale influence. GDP was significantly negatively correlated with the reported incidence of HFMD, land urbanization level and average temperature were significantly positively correlated with the reported incidence, and NDVI had a significant negative effect on HFMD incidence in parts of Xian. Conclusion The influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of HFMD is significant and there are spatial differences in the role of each influencing factor. The results are helpful for the formulation of regional prevention and control strategies for HFMD.

Key words: Hand, foot and mouth disease, Spatial autocorrelation, Multi-scale geographically weighted regression, Geographically weighted regression, Xian

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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