基于MaxEnt的山东省SFTS影响因素评估及风险区域预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1106

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探讨山东省发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)发病的适宜环境因素,预测其高风险区域,为山东省SFTS防控提供科学依据。方法基于山东省2016—2019年SFTS报告病例和环境因子训练最大熵生态位模型(MaxEnt),分析SFTS发病的影响因素,并预测山东省2017—2020年SFTS发病高风险区域。结果对2016—2020年山东省报告的2 548例SFTS病例及环境因子的建模分析显示,14个环境因子不同程度影响山东省SFTS的发生,其中坡度贡献最大;日照时数、年累计降水量、年相对湿度、年平均风速为SFTS发生主要影响因子。ROC曲线显示,MaxEnt模型预测效果较优,预测模型的AUC分别为0.862、0.842、0.830、0.832、0.814。模型预测的高风险区范围相对集中,围绕胶东半岛及鲁中地区集群。结论山东省SFTS高风险区域较为稳定,易发生在缓坡周围的平坡所在区域,且受到多种气象因素的影响。应针对高发地区采取综合措施防控SFTS。

关键词: 发热伴血小板减少综合征, 生态位模型, 影响因素, 风险区域

Abstract: Objective To explore the appropriate environmental factors for the incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Shandong Province and to predict the potential high-risk areas, so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of SFTS. Methods Based on the data of confirmed SFTS cases and environmental factors in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2019, MaxEnt model was trained to analyze the influencing factors of SFTS, and to predict the high-risk areas of SFTS from 2017 to 2020. Results From 2016 to 2020, 2,548 cases of SFTS were reported in Shandong Province, and 14 environmental factors were found to affect the distribution of SFTS to varying degrees, including slope, which contributed the most, and meteorological factors such as average sunshine duration, annual accumulated precipitation, annual relative humidity and annual average wind speed. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the prediction effects of MaxEnt model was good, with the area under the curve(AUC)being 0.862, 0.842, 0.830, 0.832, and 0.814, respectively. The potential high-risk areas predicted by the model was around the Jiaodong Peninsula and central region of Shandong Province. Conclusion The high-risk areas of SFTS in Shandong Province are relatively stable. SFTS tends to occur in flat slope areas around gentle slopes, and is affected by meteorological factors. Comprehensive measures should be taken to prevent and control SFTS.

Key words: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome, Maximum entropy model, Influencing factors, Risk areas

中图分类号:

R183.5

韩璐怿,田雪莹,高琦,佘凯丽,曹云贤,魏淑淑,丁淑军,李秀君. 基于MaxEnt的山东省SFTS影响因素评估及风险区域预测[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2023, 61(4): 103-110.

HAN Luyi, TIAN Xueying, GAO Qi, SHE Kaili, CAO Yunxian, WEI Shushu, Ding Shujun, LI Xiujun. MaxEnt modeling to analyze influencing factors of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and predict the potential distribution in Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2023, 61(4): 103-110.

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