您的位置:山东大学 -> 科技期刊社 -> 《山东大学学报(医学版)》

山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2020, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 105-111.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0795

• • 上一篇    下一篇

COVID-19疫情下医院服务区分布与隔离点设置方法的初步探讨

黄家祺,肖霜,张俊,张志杰   

  1. 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032
  • 发布日期:2020-10-08
  • 通讯作者: 张志杰. E-mail:epistat@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(81673239,81973102);海军后勤科研计划重点项目(BHJ17J013)

Preliminary discussion on hospital service areas distribution and the setting of isolation points under the COVID-19 epidemic

HUANG Jiaqi, XIAO Shuang, ZHANG Jun, ZHANG Zhijie   

  1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
  • Published:2020-10-08

摘要: 目的 从空间设施布局优化的角度探讨疫情下的医院服务区分布与基于服务区设置集中隔离点的方法。 方法 基于Huff模型描绘了上海市三级医院的服务区空间分布;以最大化覆盖率为目标,采用位置分配模型预测医院选址的优化布局,设置潜在的候选位置。 结果 在上海市可收治病例的三级医院中,中心地区医院密度高;城乡医院服务区空间分布差异明显,郊区医院的服务区面积大;优化配置布局的结果显示,可在松江区中心新增1家医院,在浦东新区中间区域增加适量医院。 结论 结合医院服务区分布,隔离点可以设置于各街道中与所属医院相近的位置,明确出现病例时各个隔离点对应送往的医院。优化布局建议在松江区和浦东新区增加三级医院。

关键词: COVID-19, 隔离点, 医院服务区, 位置分配模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the distributions of hospital service areas under epidemic situation and the methods of setting centralized isolation points based on service areas from the perspective of space facility layout optimization. Methods A Huff model was applied to analyze the distributions of service areas of tertiary hospitals in Shanghai. Candidate locations were set to achieve maximizing coverage, and a location-allocation model was applied to predict the optimal hospital location. Results Among the tertiary hospitals that can admit COVID-19 cases in Shanghai, the central area had a high density of hospitals. The distributions of service areas in urban and rural hospitals were obviously different, and the service areas of rural hospitals were large. It was recommended to optimize the allocation of a new hospital in the center region of Songjiang District and an appropriate number of hospitals in the central area of Pudong New District. Conclusion Considering the distribution of hospital service areas, isolation points can be set in the communities close to the affiliated hospitals, and the hospitals corresponding to each isolation point should be clearly identified when a case occurs. It is recommended to optimize the configuration to add tertiary hospitals in Songjiang District and Pudong New District.

Key words: COVID-19, Isolation point, Hospital service areas, Location-allocation model

中图分类号: 

  • R18
[1] Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W, et al. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019[J]. New Engl J Med, 2020, 382(8): 727-733.
[2] Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia[J]. New Engl J Med, 2020, 382(13):1199-1207.
[3] 中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会.截至3月24日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况[EB/OL].(2020-03-24)[2020-05-14]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202003/b882c06edf184fbf800d4c7957e02dad.shtml.
[4] 中国疾控新冠专栏. 截至3月24日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况[EB/OL].(2020-03-24)[2020-05-14]. http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/szkb_11803/jszl_11809/202003/t20200325_215498.html.
[5] 上海市卫生健康委员会,上海市中医药管理局. 权威发布!进沪前14天内,有过这8个国家旅行或居住史,一律隔离14天![EB/OL].(2020-03-12)[2020-05-14]. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/xwfb/20200313/c16b86cb89b04688829ffb5914269431.html.
[6] 上海市卫生健康委员会,上海市中医药管理局. 权威发布!明天零时起,所有入境来沪人员一律集中隔离健康观察14天[EB/OL].(2020-03-27)[2020-05-14]. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/xwfb/20200328/607c2936f40b4750998e51f51d025947.html.
[7] 上海市卫生健康委员会,上海市中医药管理局. 本市对3月31日前来沪尚处在集中隔离健康观察期的入境人员进行新冠病毒检测[EB/OL].(2020-04-06)[2020-05-14]. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/xwfb/20200408/44a3f445cce94139883b9ed822b0a77b.html.
[8] 卫生部. 卫医管发[2011] 33号,关于印发《三级综合医院评审标准(2011年版)》[S]. 2011.
[9] 单宝艳,邱芸,范开放,等. 基于GIS和Huff模型的城市避震疏散区优化配置[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2018, 34(2): 22-27. SHAN Baoyan, QIU Yun, FAN Kaifang, et al. Optimizing allocation of urban seismic shelter for evacuation based on GIS and Huff model [J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2018, 34(2): 22-27.
[10] 林珲, 施迅. 地理信息科学前沿[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2017.
[11] Peng J, Wang FH, Xierali Imam M. Using a Huff-based model to delineate hospital service areas[J]. Prof Geogr, 2017, 69(4): 522-530.
[12] Wang F. Quantitative methods and socio-economic applications in GIS[M]. 2nd Edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2014.
[13] 陶卓霖, 程杨, 戴特奇, 等. 基于公平最大化目标的2020年北京市养老设施布局优化[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(12): 1609-1616. TAO Zhuolin, CHENG Yang, DAI Teqi, et al. Spatial optimization of residential care facility locations in 2020 in Beijing: maximum equity in accessibility [J]. Progress in Grography, 2015, 34(12): 1609-1616.
[14] Pan HZ, Li YF, Dong AR. Application of network Huff model for commercial network planning at suburban-taking Wujin district Changzhou as a case[J]. Annals of GIS, 2013, 19(3): 131-141.
[15] Ghost A, Harche F. Location-allocation models in the private sector: process, problems and prospects[J]. Location Science, 1993, 1(1): 81-106.
[16] Shamsur R, David KS. Use of location-allocation models in health service development planning in developing nations[J]. Eur J Oper Res, 2000, 3(2000): 437-452.
[17] Ashraf A. Integration of location-allocation and accessibility models in GIS to improve urban planning for health services in Al-Madinah Al-Munawwarah, Saudi Arabia[J]. Journal of Geographic Information System, 2019, 11(6): 633-662.
[18] Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, et al. Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions[J]. J Clin Med, 2020, 9(2): 462. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020462.
[19] Wilder-Smith A, Freedman DO. Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment: pivotal role for old-style public health measures in the novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV)outbreak[J]. J Travel Med, 2020, 27(2): taaa020. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa020.
[20] 澎湃新闻. 权威发布!近20天浦东30个集中隔离点接收重点国家入境人员八千余人[EB/OL].(2020-03-22)[2020-05-14]. http://sh.sina.com.cn/news/m/2020-03-22/detail-iimxyqwa2438013.shtml.
[21] 上海市卫生健康委员会,上海市中医药管理局. 严控境外疫情输入!上海对入境来沪人员实施这些措施[EB/OL].(2020-03-22)[2020-05-14]. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/xwfb/20200323/0a6ae98b315e4a289518f2365028107f.html.
[22] Zhang PY, Ren X, Zhang QQ, et a1. Spatial analysis of rural medical facilities using huff model: a case study of Lankao county, Henan province[J]. International Journal of Smart Home, 2015, 9(1): 161-168.
[23] Polo G, Acosta CM, Ferreira F, et al. Location-allocation and accessibility models for improving the spatial planning of public health services[J]. PLoS One, 2015, 10(3): e119190. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0119190.
[24] Kranti SV, Sandul Y, Raja S, et al. Options for optimal coverage of free C-section services for poor mothers in Indian State of Gujarat location allocation analysis using GIS [J]. PLoS One, 2015, 10(9): 1-16.
[25] 谢小华, 王瑞璋, 文东宏, 等. 医疗设施布局的GIS优化评价——以翔安区医疗设施为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2015,17(3): 317-328. XIE Xiaohua, WANG Ruizhang, WEN Donghong, et al. Evaluating the medical facilities layout based on GIS: an application of Xiangan District [J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2015,17(3): 317-328.
[1] 刘军,李欢,张仕玉,张鹏,艾思奇,田飞,林华亮. 湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎患者发生重型、危重型的影响因素[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 60-65.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!