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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2023, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (4): 95-102.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.0919

• 公共卫生与管理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时空地理加权回归模型探索肺癌发病的环境影响因素

程传龙1,韩闯1,房启迪1,刘盈1,杨淑霞2,崔峰2,刘靖靖2,李秀君1   

  1. 1. 山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院生物统计学系, 山东 济南 250012;2. 淄博市疾病预防控制中心, 山东 淄博 255026
  • 发布日期:2023-04-11
  • 通讯作者: 李秀君. E-mail:xjli@sdu.edu.cn刘靖靖. E-mail:358368303@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(81673238);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1200500,2019YFC1200502)

Exploring the environmental influencing factors of lung cancer incidence based on geographically and temporally weighted regression model

CHENG Chuanlong1, HAN Chuang1, FANG Qidi1, LIU Ying1, YANG Shuxia2, CUI Feng2, LIU Jingjing2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo 255026, Shandong, China
  • Published:2023-04-11

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摘要： 目的 分析淄博市肺癌发病的时空分布,并基于时空统计模型探究肺癌发病的环境影响因素。 方法 收集2015至2019年淄博市肺癌发病报告数据,描述其时空流行病学特征;采用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型探索肺癌发病与环境影响因素之间的关系,并与传统模型比较拟合效果。 结果 淄博市2015至2019年肺癌发病率呈上升趋势,5年平均年发病率为67.43/10万。肺癌发病率空间分布存在聚集性,中部地区发病率较低,其周围及南部地区发病率较高。GTWR模型结果显示,不同位置的环境因素对肺癌发病的影响不同。经济发展水平可能影响空气污染物与肺癌发病之间的关系,经济发展水平低的地区,空气污染对肺癌发病影响更大。与传统模型相比,GTWR模型拥有更好的拟合效果。 结论 淄博市肺癌发病率与环境影响因素之间存在时空相关性,当地应合理分配医疗资源,在关注空气污染较重地区的同时,还应着重针对经济发展水平较低的地区开展肺癌防治工作,提高当地医疗服务水平。

关键词: 肺癌, 环境影响因素, 时空地理加权回归

Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of lung cancer incidence in Zibo City, and to explore the environmental influencing factors of lung cancer incidence based on geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model. Methods The incidence data of lung cancer in Zibo City from 2015 to 2019 were collected, and the spatio-temporal epidemiological characteristics were described. GTWR model was used to explore the relationship between lung cancer incidence and environmental factors, and the fitting effect was compared with the traditional model. Results The incidence of lung cancer in Zibo City showed an increasing trend from 2015 to 2019, with an average annual incidence of 67.43/100,000. The spatial distribution of lung cancer incidence was clustered in Zibo City, with low incidence in the central region and high incidence in the surrounding and southern regions. GTWR model results showed that environmental factors in different spatial locations had different effects on lung cancer incidence. Economic development level might affect the relationship between air pollution and lung cancer incidence, and the influence of air pollution on lung cancer incidence was stronger in areas with low economic development level. Compared with traditional model, GTWR model had better fitting effect. Conclusion There is a spatial and temporal correlation between lung cancer incidence and environmental factors in Zibo City. Local medical resources should be allocated rationally. Besides paying attention to the areas with serious air pollution, lung cancer prevention and treatment should also be carried out in the areas with low economic development level to improve the local medical service level.

Key words: Lung cancer, Environmental factors, Geographically and temporally weighted regression

中图分类号: 

  • R122
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