健康管理人群慢性肾脏病风险预测模型

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.359

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的构建健康管理人群慢性肾脏病(CKD)发病风险预测模型。方法从山东多中心健康管理纵向观察队列中选取年龄20岁以上、至少有两次纵向观察结果、初次观察结果未患CKD的健康管理对象,共17 654人,随访观察结局为CKD。应用Cox比例风险回归模型建立风险预测模型,以受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型的拟合效果,应用十折交叉验证法验证模型的稳定性。结果观察期间共有770例新发CKD病例,发病密度为17.69/1 000人年。最终纳入模型的预测因子有年龄、性别、高血压、糖尿病、血肌酐、血尿素氮、血尿酸、嗜碱性粒细胞百分比。模型AUC为0.685(95%CI:0.678~0.692),且稳定性较好。结论建立的CKD风险预测模型在健康管理人群中有较好的预测能力。

关键词: 风险预测模型, 慢性肾脏病, 健康管理, 队列

Abstract: Objective To establish a risk prediction model of chronic kidney disease(CKD). Methods The data were obtained from Shandong Multi-center Longitudinal Cohort for Health Management. A total of 17 654 subjects with age of 20 years or older were included who had no CKD at baseline and accepted health examination at least twice during the study period. The follow-up outcome was CKD. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to establish the model and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by AUC. Ten-fold cross validation was used to verify the stability of the model. Results A total of 770 cases were observed during the follow-up. The incidence density of CKD was 17.69 per thousand person-years. The predictive factors in the final model included age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, uric acid and basophils percentage. The AUC of the model was 0.685(95%CI: 0.678-0.692). Conclusion We have constructed a risk model that could be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of CKD in health management population.

Key words: Chronic kidney disease, Risk prediction model, Health management, Cohort

中图分类号:

R692

周苗,夏同耀,孙爱玲,李明,申振伟,卞伟玮,蒋正,康凤玲,柳晓涓,薛付忠,刘静. 健康管理人群慢性肾脏病风险预测模型[J]. 山东大学学报（医学版）, 2017, 55(6): 98-103.

ZHOU Miao, XIA Tongyao, SUN Ailing, LI Ming, SHEN Zhenwei, BIAN Weiwei, JIANG Zheng, KANG Fengling, LIU Xiaojuan, XUE Fuzhong, LIU Jing. Risk prediction model of chronic kidney disease in health management population[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY (HEALTH SCIENCES), 2017, 55(6): 98-103.

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