Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (8): 37-42.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2017.1200

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Lag effect and vulnerable areas of floods on bacillary dysentery in Hunan Province

LIU Zhidong1, LAO Jiahui1, LIU Yanyu1, ZHANG Jing1, JIANG Baofa1,2   

  1. 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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Abstract: Objective To study the lag effect and vulnerable areas of floods on bacillary dysentery in Hunan Province. Methods The meteorological data and weekly data of bacillary dysentery in 2004-2011 were obtained. The two-stage model was conducted. Firstly, a distributed lag non-linear model was developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. Secondly, a hierarchical linear model was used to find the vulnerable areas. Results A total of 53 439 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. At the province level, the cumulative effect of floods on bacillary dysentery at lag 0-1 week was statistically significant(RR=1.19, 95%CI: 1.05-1.36), and the effect reached maximum at lag 1 week(RR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.05-1.20). Western Hunan(RR=1.66, 95%CI: 1.09-2.55)and regions with low level of economic development(RR=1.43, 95%CI: 1.02-2.02)were more vulnerable than other areas. Conclusion Floods have significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery in study area. The intervention measures should be last at least two weeks. Disaster relief work must be intensified especially in regions with low level of economic development to control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods.

Key words: Hunan Province, Floods, Bacillary dysentery, Two-stage model, Vulnerable areas

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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[1] JIANG Baofa, DING Guoyong, LIU Xuena. Research progress on the relationship between floods and human health [J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2018, 56(8): 21-28.
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