气温日较差对淄博市冠心病入院人数的短期影响

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2022.1215

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探究气温日较差(DTR)对淄博市每日因冠心病入院人数的影响。方法利用2015年至2019年淄博市每日因冠心病入院人数、每日的气象和空气污染数据。在调整长期趋势、气象变量、节假日效应等影响因素后,采用广义加性模型探究DTR对每日因冠心病入院人数的影响。同时,按年龄、性别进行亚组分析,识别脆弱人群。结果研究期间淄博市上报的冠心病入院人数共计21 105人。DTR显著增加冠心病入院的人数。在滞后1 d时,单日效应达到最大,相应的RR值为1.053(95%CI:1.026~1.081);在累积滞后4 d时,累积效应达到最大,相应的RR值为1.076(95%CI:1.016~1.139)。不同性别、年龄组之间DTR的效应未见明显差异。结论较大的DTR会增加冠心病的入院风险。相关部门应开展DTR与冠心病相关知识的健康教育,同时针对温差变化较大的天气,提高预报精准度,引导群众做好个人防护以减少DTR的影响。

关键词: 气温日较差, 冠心病, 入院人数, 广义加性模型

Abstract: Objective To investigate the impacts of diurnal temperature range(DTR)on the daily hospital admissions for coronary heart disease in Zibo City. Methods Daily hospital admission data of coronary heart disease, meteorological data and air pollutant data in Zibo from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed. After influencing factors such as long-term trend, meteorological factors and holiday effects were adjusted, generalized additive model was used to test the effects of DTR on daily hospital admissions for coronary heart disease. Subgroup analysis was performed by age and gender to identify the vulnerable population. Results A total of 21,105 coronary heart disease admissions were reported. DTR significantly increased the number of coronary heart disease admissions, with the maximum Lag effect of 1.053(95%CI: 1.026-1.081)at Lag1 day and the maximum cumulative lag effect of 1.076(95%CI: 1.016-1.139)at Lag04. Subgroup analysis showed no significant differences in the effects of DTR between different gender and age groups. Conclusion Large DTR increases the risk of coronary heart disease admission. Departments responsible should carry out health education on DTR and coronary heart disease, improve the accuracy of weather forecast, and guide people to take good personal protection to reduce the influence of DTR.

Key words: Diurnal temperature range, Coronary heart disease, Hospital admission, Generalized additive model

中图分类号:

R122

韩闯,程传龙,李春雨,刘盈,房启迪,崔峰,杨淑霞,韩鹏,李秀君. 气温日较差对淄博市冠心病入院人数的短期影响[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2023, 61(4): 111-118.

HAN Chuang, CHENG Chuanlong, LI Chunyu, LIU Ying, FANG Qidi, CUI Feng, YANG Shuxia, HAN Peng, LI Xiujun. Short-term effects of diurnal temperature range on hospital admissions for coronary heart disease in Zibo City[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2023, 61(4): 111-118.

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