您的位置：山东大学 -> 科技期刊社 -> 《山东大学学报（医学版）》

山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 123-129.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.226

• • 上一篇    下一篇

济南市空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势和预测

孙湛1,刘仲1,张鑫1,于志刚1,李新伟2,崔亮亮2,张谊2,刘岚铮1   

  1. 济南市疾病预防控制中心 1.理化检验所;2.环境健康所, 山东 济南 250021
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 刘岚铮. E-mail:jinanliu2005@126.com

Trend analysis and forecast of the contents of metal and metalloid elements in the air fine particulate matter in Jinan City, China

SUN Zhan1, LIU Zhong1, ZHANG Xin1, YU Zhigang1, LI Xinwei2, CUI Liangliang2, ZHANG Yi2, LIU Lanzheng1   

  1. 1. Department of Physical and Chemical Testing;
    2. Department of Enviromental Health, Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

PDF (PC)

70

摘要： 目的 分析济南市2014年至2017年空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势,为有针对性地开展大气环境污染治理提供相应的数据支持。 方法 根据济南市空气污染的区域性特征,选择历城区和市中区两个监测点进行采样,检测细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素浓度,应用2014年至2017年数据,建立预测模型。利用预测模型预测2018年细颗粒物浓度。 结果 2014年至2017年济南市细颗粒物浓度范围为4.7~497.8 μg/m3;一季度>四季度>二季度>三季度;历城区高于市中区;日均超标率为45.43%,超标(1.06±0.81)倍;12种金属及类金属元素整体变化趋势与浓度基本保持一致,2014年至2015年整体基本保持高位,2016年开始逐渐降低,细颗粒物浓度的高峰时间晚于金属及类金属浓度的高峰时间;预测结果显示2018年细颗粒物浓度较2017年呈平稳下降趋势。 结论 济南市细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素季节性明显,一季度和四季度较高,因而大气污染防控措施制定应考虑污染物浓度的季节性特征。济南市细颗粒物时间序列模型预测效果良好,不仅能帮助了解细颗粒物浓度变化趋势,而且可以作为重污染天气预警指示之一。

关键词: 细颗粒物, 金属及类金属元素, 趋势, 预测, 浓度

Abstract: Objective To analyze the variation trend of metal and metalloid elements in the air fine particulate matter from 2014 to 2017 in Jinan City, and provide corresponding data supports for the scientific and targeted air pollution control. Methods According to the regional characteristics of air pollution in Jinan City, the samples were selected from two monitoring points in Licheng and Shizhong Districts. The concentrations of fine particulate matter, metal, and metalloid elements were detected. Using the data from 2014 to 2017, a prediction model was established, and the concentration of fine particulate matter in 2018 was predicted by using prediction model. Results During 2014-2017, the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan City ranged from 4.7 μg/m3 to 497.8 μg/m3. The concentration of fine particulate matter in the second and third quarters were lower than that in the first and fourth quarters, and the concentration of fine particulate matter in Licheng District was higher than that in Shizhong District. The exceeding standard ratio of the 24 h average value was 45.43%, while the mean of the 24 h average value was(1.06±0.81)times. The overall trend of 12 metal and metalloid elements was consistent with the mass concentration; it remained basically high from 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -孙湛,等.济南市空气细颗粒物浓度和金属及类金属元素变化趋势和预测 \=-2014 to 2015, and gradually decreased in 2016. The peak of mass concentration was always later than the peak of metal and metalloid concentration. The predicted concentration of fine particulate matter in 2018 was decreased compared with that in 2017. Conclusion The concentration of fine particulate matter and the metal and metalloid elements varied significantly in different quarters, and the higher levels were observed in the first and fourth quarters. So, specific control measures should be taken according to different air pollution status. The predictive effect of the time-series model of the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan works well, which can not only contributes to understanding the trends of the concentration of fine particulate matter in Jinan, but also can serve as an important indicator of heavy pollution.

Key words: Fine particular matter, Metal and metalloid elements, Tendency, Forecast, Concentration

中图分类号: 

  • R122
[1] 燕丽, 杨金田. 我国大气细颗粒物污染现状及控制对策探讨[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(S2): 82-84.
[2] 张桂芹, 刘泽常, 杜世勇. 济南市环境空气细粒子PM2.5污染特征及影响因素[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2010, 33(S2): 520. ZHANG Guiqin, LIU Zechang, DU Shiyong. Pollution characteristics of fine particles PM2.5 and influence factors in Jinan City[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2010, 33(S2): 520.
[3] 杜鹏瑞, 杜睿, 任伟珊. 城市大气颗粒物毒性效应及机制的研究进展[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016, 36(9): 2815-2827. DU Pengrui, DU Rui, REN Weishan. Research progress on toxicological characteristics and mechanisms of urban atmospheric particulate matters[J]. China Environmental Science, 2016, 36(9): 2815-2827.
[4] 胡子梅, 王军, 陶征楷, 等. 上海市PM2.5重金属污染水平与健康风险评价[J]. 环境科学学报, 2013, 33(12): 3399-3406. HU Zimei, WANG Jun, TAO Zhengkai, et al. Pollution level and health risk assessment of heavy metals in PM2.5 Shanghai[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2013, 33(12): 3399-3406.
[5] World Health Organization. Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution-REVIHAAP Project[R]. Copenhagen: World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, 2013: 1-302.
[6] Kang I G. The effect of PM10 on allergy symptoms in allergic rhinitis patients during spring season[J]. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2015, 12(1): 735-745.
[7] 刘仲, 于志刚, 孙湛, 等. 2013年济南市采暖季大气细颗粒物污染监测分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2015, 5(6): 520-524. LIU Zhong, YU Zhigang, SUN Zhan, et al. Fine particulate matters analysis in air during heating season in Jinan in 2013[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2015, 5(6): 520-524.
[8] 梁锐明, 殷鹏, 周脉耕. 大气PM2.5长期暴露对健康影响的队列研究进展[J]. 环境与健康杂志, 2016, 33(2): 172-177. LIANG Ruiming, YIN Peng, ZHOU Maigeng. Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution and health effects: a review of recent cohorts[J]. Journal of Environment and Health, 2016, 33(2): 172-177.
[9] 陶燕, 刘亚梦, 米生权, 等. 大气细颗粒物的污染特征及对人体健康的影响[J]. 环境科学学报, 2014, 34(3): 592-597. TAO Yan, LIU Yameng, MI Shengquan, et al. Atmospheric pollution characteristics of fine particles and their effects on human health[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2014, 34(3): 592-597.
[10] 郭新彪, 魏红英. 大气PM2.5对健康影响的研究进展[J]. 科学通报, 2013, 58(13): 1171-1177. GUO Xinbiao, WEI Hongying. Progress on the health effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013, 58(13): 1171-1177.
[11] 谢元博, 陈娟, 李巍. 雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J]. 环境科学, 2014, 35(1): 1-8. XIE Yuanbo, CHEN Juan, LI Wei. An Assessment of PM2.5 related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive[J]. Environmental Science, 2014, 35(1): 1-8.
[12] 王文朋, 沈惠平, 黄云彪, 等. 大气PM2.5细颗粒物污染状况及对人体健康的影响[J]. 上海预防医学, 2015, 27(5): 290.
[13] 孙湛, 刘仲, 杨月莲, 等. 济南市冬季灰霾期间儿童唾液溶菌酶浓度分析[J]. 中国公共卫生管理,2016, 32(2): 178-179. SUN Zhan, LIU Zhong, YANG Yuelian, et al. Study on concentration of salivary lysozyme of children in dust-haze days of winter in Ji-nan[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health Management, 2016, 32(2): 178-179.
[14] Cai Y. Cross-sectional associations between air pollution and chronic bronchitis: an ESCAPE meta-analysis across five cohorts[J]. Thorax, 2014, 69(11): 1005-1014.
[15] 胡彬, 陈瑞, 徐建勋, 等. 雾霾超细颗粒物的健康效应[J]. 科学通报, 2015, 60(30): 2808-2823. HU Bin, CHEN Rui, XU Jianxun, et al. Health effects of ambient ultrafine(nano)particles in haze[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015, 60(30):2808-2823.
[16] 潘小川. 关注中国大气灰霾PM2.5对人群健康影响的新常态[J]. 北京大学学报(医学版), 2015, 47(3): 377-379.
[17] 吴俊, 陈晓东, 周连, 等. 南京市某区大气中PM2.5污染状况及变化趋势分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2013, 3(2): 77-79. WU Jun, CHEN Xiaodong, ZHOU Lian, et al. Analysis on the pollution status and change trend of PM2.5 in the atmosphere in Nanjing[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2013, 3(2): 77-79.
[18] 环境保护部, 国家质量监督检验检疫总局. GB3095-2012环境空气质量标准[S]. 北京:中国环境科学出版社, 2016.
[19] 严宙宁, 牟敬锋, 赵星, 等. 基于ARIMA模型的深圳市大气PM2.5浓度时间序列预测分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2018, 45(2): 220-223. YAN Yunin, MU Jingfeng, ZHAO Xing, et al. The time series prediction of PM2.5 in Shenzhen based on ARIMA model[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2018, 45(2): 220-223.
[20] 高宇钊, 房瑞玲, 李少琼, 等. 太原市大气细颗粒物变化趋势与预测模型分析[J]. 中国药物与临床, 2015, 15(5): 603-606. GAO Yuzhao, FANG Ruiling, LI Shaoqiong, et al. Variation trend and forecast model of atmospheric PM2.5 in Taiyuan[J]. Chinese Remedies & Clinics, 2015, 15(5): 603-606.
[21] 刘宗伟, 周彩丽, 马冬梅, 等. 自回归移动平均模型在预测PM2.5中的应用[J]. 预防医学论坛, 2016, 22(8): 582-584. LIU Zongwei, ZHOU Caili, MA Dongmei, et al. Forecast of PM2.5 with the ARMA model[J]. Preventive Medicine Tribune, 2016, 22(8): 582-584.
[22] 薛元恺, 周丽玲. 我国灰霾天气成因与防治对策探讨[J].环境卫生学杂志, 2017, 7(3): 248-254. XUE Yuankai, ZHOU Liling. Causes and control measures of hazy weather in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2017, 7(3): 248-254.
[23] 薛江, 蒋德海, 王丹璐, 等. 兰州市冬季和春季PM2.5金属元素浓度水平与分布[J]. 中国环境监测, 2015, 31(5): 67-72. XUE Jiang, JIANG Dehai, WANG Danlu, et al. Metal elements in fine particles and distributing characteristic in Lanzhou in winter and spring[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2015, 31(5): 67-72.
[24] 孙湛, 刘素萍, 张谊, 等. 济南市PM2.5中金属及类金属元素季节性变化及相关性分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2017, 7(5): 403-407. SUN Zhan, LIU Suping, ZHANG Yi, et al. Analysis of seasonal variation and correlation of metal elements in PM2.5 in Jinan City[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2017, 7(5): 403-407.
[25] 余家燕, 刘芮伶, 翟崇治, 等. 重庆城区PM2.5中金属浓度及其来源[J]. 中国环境监测, 2014, 30(3): 37-42. YU Jiayan, LIU Ruiling, ZHAI Chongzhi, et al. Concentration and source analysis of metals in PM2.5 in Chongqing urban[J] Environmental Monitoring in China, 2014, 30(3): 37-42.
[26] 于扬, 岑况, Stefan Norra,等. 北京市PM2.5中主要重金属元素污染特征及季节变化分析[J]. 现代地质, 2012, 23(5): 975-982. YU Yang, CEN Kuang, Srefan Norra, et al. Concentration characteristics and seasonal trend of main heavy metal elements of PM2.5 in Beijing[J]. Geoscience, 2012, 23(5): 975-982.
[27] 陶俊, 张仁健, 段菁春, 等. 北京城区PM2.5中致癌重金属季节变化特征及其来源分析[J]. 环境科学, 2014, 35(2): 411-417. TAO Jun, ZHANG Renjian, DUAN Jingchun, et al. Seasonal variation of carcinogenic heavy metals in PM2.5 and Source Beijing[J]. Environmental Science, 2014, 35(2): 411-417.
[28] 李尉卿, 毛晓明, 李舒, 等. 郑州市近地层1.5和40米处大气气溶胶中微量元素及晶体物质的分布[J]. 现代科学仪器, 2007, 1: 92-95. LI Weiqing, MAO Xiaoming, LI Shu, et al. Vertical distributing of microelements and crystalloids of aerosol in atmosphere anear ground layer of Zhengzhou City[J]. Modern Scientific Instruments, 2007, 1: 92-95.
[29] 乔宝文, 刘子锐, 胡波, 等. 北京冬季PM2.5中金属元素浓度特征和来源分析[J]. 环境科学, 2017, 38(3): 876-883. QIAO Baowen, LIU Zirui, HU Bo, et al. Concentration characteristics and sources of trace metals in PM2.5 during wintertime in Beijing[J]. Environmental Science, 2017, 38(3): 876-883.
[30] 胡跃华, 廖家强, 冯国双, 等. 自回归移动平均模型在全国手足口病疫情预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2014, 29(10): 827-832. HU Yuehua, LIAO Jiaqiang, FENG Guoshuang, et al. Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in China[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2014, 29(10): 827-832.
[31] Munoz-Tuduri M, Garcia-Moro C, Waiker PL. Time series analysis of the epidemiological transition in Minorca 1634—1997[J]. Hum Biol, 2006, 78(4): 619-634.
[32] 张蕊, 郑黎强, 潘国伟. 疾病发病风险预测模型的应用与建立[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2015, 32(4): 724-726.
[33] 范引光, 吕金伟, 戴色莺, 等. ARIMA模型与灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在HIV感染人数预测中的应用[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2012, 16(12): 1100-1103. FAN Yinguang, LU Jinwei, DAI Seyin, et al. Prediction on the number of HIV with models of ARIMA and GM(1,1)[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention, 2012, 16(12): 1100-1103.
[1] 王烨,王刚,南海鸥,蔡雨玲,李嘉宇,王海锋,颜英杰,江志伟. 胃癌患者围手术期心率变异度与炎性指标的相关性[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2026, 64(4): 23-30.
[2] 段盈竹,董波,于睿. 内在情感与类风湿关节炎患者冠状动脉粥样硬化风险关系的孟德尔随机化分析[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2026, 64(4): 63-71.
[3] 王建民,李晓峰,由志涛,董圣杰,赵宇驰,李占菊,邹德鑫,张剑锋,孙涛,杜伟. 基于可解释机器学习的后路腰椎椎体间融合术后慢性疼痛风险预测模型构建[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2026, 64(2): 78-88.
[4] 孙爽爽,仉率杰,张伯韬,袁莹,于媛媛,薛付忠. 基于真实世界研究的18~50岁人群急性缺血性卒中影响因素[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(9): 40-46.
[5] 王梦星,薛付忠,杨帆. 基于多模态交叉注意力机制融合的1型糖尿病血糖浓度预测方法[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(8): 41-50.
[6] 申路佳,逯天威,巩伟明,赵岩松,王淑康,袁中尚. 代谢风险评分在2型糖尿病人群心血管结局预测中的应用[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(8): 69-78.
[7] 李千,杨帆,薛付忠. 基于多模态数据融合的多癌种风险预测模型[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(8): 79-85.
[8] 李晓琪,刘佩丽,成红,赵艳艳. 基于自注意力机制预测ICU脓毒症患者的死亡率[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(8): 86-93.
[9] 陈莹莹,王鲁,胡锡峰,朱高培,薛付忠. 基于贝叶斯网络的2型糖尿病患者并发脑卒中风险预测[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(8): 94-102.
[10] 王丽云,高天勤,刘雨佳,陈青,陈柳,沙凯辉. 基于机器学习产后压力性尿失禁风险预测模型的构建及验证[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(6): 55-66.
[11] 杜雪,李春霞,刘云霞,张涛. 基于MFPC-Cox的结直肠癌患者预后动态预测模型[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(5): 101-110.
[12] 陈瑛翼,游倩,王意,张帆,李凤,季舒铭,徐浩源,饶志勇. 办公室职员肌肉质量减少预测模型的开发与验证[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(4): 26-35.
[13] 王宝炫,焦杰,张厚君,刘奇,于冠英. 衰弱与肌少症评估在胃肠道肿瘤术后结局预测中的应用与展望[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(4): 51-58.
[14] 刘文钊,张远,马湘萍,魏峰涛,卜培莉. 内皮活化和应激指数预测值与心力衰竭患者死亡风险的关联[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(11): 27-35.
[15] 李永,崔书君,杨飞,张凡,殷晓霞. 基于增强MRI的亚区域影像组学模型可预测乳腺癌患者新辅助化疗后的病理完全反应[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2025, 63(1): 81-89.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
版权所有 © 2018 《山东大学学报(医学版)》编辑部　
地址:山东大学科技期刊社（济南市历城区山大南路27号山东大学中心校区明德楼B座721室） 电话: 0531-88366918 E-mail: xbyxb@sdu.edu.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发