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山东大学学报（医学版） ›› 2017, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (11): 71-74.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2016.1009

• 公共卫生与管理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响

韩京1,张军1,周林1,房巧玲1,刘守钦1,张济1,张颖2,3   

  1. 1.济南市疾病预防控制中心慢病所, 山东 济南 250021;2.悉尼大学公共卫生学院, 澳大利亚 新南威尔士州 悉尼 2006;3.山东大学公共卫生学院气候与健康研究中心, 山东 济南 250061
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-18 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 张济. E-mail:zhangji1967@163.com;张颖. E-mail:ying.zhang@sydney.edu.au

Impact of extreme temperatures on cardiovascular deaths in Jinan City

HAN Jing1, ZHANG Jun1, ZHOU Lin1, FANG Qiaoling1, LIU Shouqin1, ZHANG Ji1, ZHANG Ying2,3   

  1. 1. Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China;
    2. School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney 2006, NSW, Australia;
    3. School of Public Health/Climate and Health Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-08-18 Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10

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摘要： 目的 探讨极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响,并为制定防治对策提供依据。 方法 收集济南市2011年至2014年居民心脑血管疾病逐日死亡资料和同时期的气象资料。极端气温定义:寒潮为每年10月至第二年3月至少连续3 d日平均温度低于济南市2011年至2014年日平均温度的第5百分位数;热浪为每年的5至8月至少连续3 d日平均温度高于济南市研究期间的日平均温度的第95百分位数。采用时间序列泊松回归模型,在控制长期趋势、滞后效应和气象因素的影响后,定量分析平均温度对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数及死亡风险的影响。 结果 济南市心脑血管疾病死亡分布具有明显的季节性。极端气温暴露(寒潮和热浪)期显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病日均死亡人数(P<0.01)。泊松回归结果显示,极端气温暴露显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病的死亡风险,寒潮期与热浪期的死亡风险分别为1.06(95%CI:1.03~1.10)和1.03(95%CI:1.00~1.06),与非极端气温暴露期比较,差异均有统计学意义(P< 0.05)。全部人群不论性别与年龄均是寒潮敏感人群,仅高年龄组(≥65岁)是热浪敏感人群。 结论 极端气温显著增加济南市居民心脑血管疾病日死亡人数与死亡风险;应对极端气温制定公共卫生应急预警政策应覆盖全人群。

关键词: 热浪, 心脑血管疾病, 极端气温事件, 寒潮

Abstract: Objective To investigate the relationship between extreme temperatures and daily number of cardiovascular deaths in Jinan City, and to provide theoretical basis for preventive measures. Methods Data of daily number of cardiovascular deaths and meteorological variables over the period of 2011-2014 were collected. Cold spells / Heat waves were defined as ≥3 consecutive days with mean temperature ≤5th percentile or ≥95th percentile, respectively. The time-series adjusted Poisson regression was adopted to assess the effects of extreme temperatures on cardiovascular deaths by controlling for lagged effects and other confounders. Results A clear seasonal distribution of daily number of cardiovascular deaths was observed. Extreme temperatures significantly increased the daily number of cardiovascular deaths(P<0.01). Both cold spell and heat wave significantly increased the risk of deaths with RR=1.06(95%CI: 1.03-1.10)and RR=1.03(95%CI: 1.00-1.06), respectively(P<0.05). The elderly group(≥65 years)was more vulnerable to heat wave exposure, while all population regardless of age and gender were vulnerable to cold spell. 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)55卷11期 -韩京,等.极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响 \=- Conclusion Both could spells and heat waves increase the risk of daily cardiovascular death in Jinan City. Our findings suggest that public health policies and interventions during extreme temperatures should target the whole population.

Key words: Cold spell, Cardiovascular diseases, Extreme temperature, Heat wave

中图分类号: 

  • R181.3
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