Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (5): 106-115.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.0843

• Public Health and Preventive Medicine • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impact of meteorological factors and PM2.5 and their interaction on mumps in Shandong Province

QIAO Yingyi1, YUE Fang1, SHI Xinglong1, XU Xinying1, LYU Jing1, CHENG Chuanlong1, ZUO Hui1, XU Qing2, LI Xiujun1   

  1. 1. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China;
    2. Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China
  • Online:2026-05-13 Published:2026-05-13

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Abstract: Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological factors and PM2.5 on mumps incidence among children aged 0-14 years in Shandong Province, and analyze their interaction effects to provide evidence for prevention stra-tegies. Methods Described the epidemiological characteristics of mumps cases in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2022 and analyzed the nonlinear effects and lag relationships between meteorological factors and PM2.5with mumps incidence using distributed lag nonlinear models. Relative excess risk due to interaction(RERI)and attributable proportion due to interaction(AP)were calculated to quantitatively evaluate interactions between meteorological factors and PM2.5. Results A total of 38,330 mumps cases among children aged 0-14 years were reported in Shandong Province between 2015 and 2022,accounting for 82.89% of the total population. The average annual incidence during 2015-2019 was 36.28 per 100,000, higher than that of 2020-2022(19.27 per 100,000). The male-to-female ratio was 1.91:1,with students and children in preschools identified as the primary affected populations.Temperature exhibited an S-shaped overall effect on mumps incidence, with the maximum risk occurring at 26 ℃(RR=1.38; 95%CI: 1.20-1.60). Precipitation reached its peak effect at 3 mm with a cumulative lag of 4 weeks(RR=1.31; 95%CI: 1.12-1.52). Wind speed showed its highest impact on incidence at 3.9 m/s(RR=1.41; 95%CI: 1.15-1.73). PM2.5mass concentration demonstrated a dose-dependent relationship with increased mumps risk.Synergistic interactions were observed both between temperature and PM2.5 and between relative humidity and PM2.5 for mumps incidence, with corresponding RERI values of 0.28(95%CI: 0.22-0.34)and 0.19(95%CI: 0.14-0.24), and AP values of 0.27(95%CI: 0.21-0.33)and 0.20(95%CI: 0.15-0.25); conversely, antagonistic effects were identified for wind speed and PM2.5 along with atmospheric pressure and PM2.5, reflected in RERI values of -0.13(95%CI: -0.19 - 0.07)and -0.12(95%CI: -0.19 - 0.06), and AP values of -0.14(95%CI: -0.20 - 0.08)and -0.16(95%CI: -0.24 - 0.07). Conclusions High temperatures, low precipitation, high wind speeds, and elevated PM2.5mass concentrations constitute risk factors for mumps incidence. Synergistic interactions exist between temperature and PM2.5 as well as relative humidity and PM2.5. These findings indicate that health authorities should incorporate meteorological conditions and PM2.5 levels when implementing preventive measures against mumps in schools. Simultaneously, educational institutions and kindergartens should reinforce hygiene education and strengthen supervision of childrens personal hygiene practices in daily prevention efforts.

Key words: Mumps, Distributed lag nonlinear model, Meteorological factors, PM2.5, Interaction

CLC Number: 

  • R181.3
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