Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences) ›› 2026, Vol. 64 ›› Issue (9): 60-67.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2025.1313

• Public Health and Preventive Medicine • Previous Articles    

Short-term effects of air pollutants on influenza in Jinan, 2019-2023

WANG Weiru1, SUN Zhan2, MENG Zhonghua3, WU Hong3, ZHANG Xin3, CHANG Caiyun4, ZHENG Min3   

  1. 1. Department of Emergency Support;
    2. Department of Quality Control;
    3. Institute of Physical and Chemical Inspection;
    4. Department of Scientific Research and Education, Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, Shandong, China
  • Published:2026-09-09

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Abstract: Objective To evaluate the short-term effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on influenza cases in Jinan City from 2019 to 2023, and to provide evidence for improving influenza early warning and prevention strategies. Methods Daily average mass concentrations of air pollutants(PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO), daily average temperature, relative humidity, and average wind speed in Jinan from January 2019 to December 2023, as well as influenza case data reported by medical institutions during the same period, were collected. The distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship and lag effects of environmental pollutants on influenza incidence. Results A total of 46,247 influenza cases was reported in Jinan from 2019 to 2023, with an average of 25 cases per day. The daily average mass concentration changes of PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 had statistically significant effects on the risk of influenza incidence. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 was associated with 1.208%, 2.135%, and 0.383% increases in cumulative influenza cases, respectively. SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 had the strongest effects on the same day, with ER(95%CI)of 0.103(0.063-0.144), 0.007(0.001-0.014), 0.018(0.004-0.033), and 0.014(0.008-0.020), respectively. The effects of PM2.5 and PM10 were strongest at lag 10 d, with ER(95%CI)of 0.098(0.017-0.186)and 0.213(0.089-0.352), respectively. Conclusion Meteorological factors and air pollutant concentrations have short-term effects on influenza cases in Jinan. A risk warning mechanism for meteorology and air pollution should be established.

Key words: Air pollutants, Meteorological factors, Influenza, Distributed lag non-linear model

CLC Number: 

  • R183.3
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