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山东大学学报 (医学版) ›› 2018, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 48-52.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2018.176

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合肥市2014~2016年大气污染物PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析

王志强1,徐艳龙1,肖长春2,冯晓亮1,郑莉1,李飞1,黄发源3   

  1. 1. 安徽省疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科, 安徽 合肥 230601;2. 合肥市疾病预防控制中心环境与职业卫生科, 安徽 合肥 230061;3. 安徽省疾病预防控制中心, 安徽 合肥 230601
  • 发布日期:2022-09-27
  • 通讯作者: 王志强. E-mail:wzq@ahcdc.com.cn
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省卫生与计划生育委员会科研计划(2017jk006)

Time series analysis in ambient PM2.5 pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality in Hefei city during 2014 to 2016

WANG Zhiqiang1, XU Yanlong1, XIAO Changchun2, FENG Xiaoliang1, ZHENG Li1, LI Fei1, HUANG Fayuan3   

  1. 1. Department of Environment Health, Anhui Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China;
    2. Department of Environment &
    Occupational Health, Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230061, Anhui, China;
    3. Anhui Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China
  • Published:2022-09-27

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摘要： 目的 评估合肥市2014~2016年PM2.5日均浓度对循环系统疾病死亡效应的影响。 方法 从合肥市气象局、环保局获得2014~2016年气象、环保资料,从中国疾病预防控制中心的死因监测系统获取人群死亡资料。采用基于Poisson回归的广义线性模型控制时间趋势、温度、相对湿度、星期几效应、法定节假日等因素,分析污染物PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病死亡效应,包含当日(lag0)、滞后(lag1~lag5)和累积滞后(lag01~lag05)效应;分析了老年人组(≥60岁)和非老年人组(<60岁)间PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响,同时分析引入SO2、NO2、O3污染物后,对PM2.5浓度与循环系统疾病死亡人数效应的影响。 结果 PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数有显著影响,其中对当日(lag0)和累积滞后5 d(lag05)影响最大,lag0超额死亡危险风险(ER)为0.53%(95%CI: 0.09%~0.98%),lag05的ER为1.01%(95%CI: 0.33%~1.70%)。在老年人组(≥60岁)中,PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数的效应更加显著,也是对lag0和lag05影响最大,lag0的ER为0.57%(95%CI: 0.11%~1.03%);lag05的ER为1.04%(95%CI: 0.33%~1.76%)。而在非老年人(年龄<60岁)人群中,PM2.5浓度对因循环系统疾病总死亡人数影响无统计学意义。在多污染物模型分析中,加入污染物SO2、NO2后,发现均可减弱PM2.5对循环系统疾病死亡人群的影响,效应无统计学意义。 结论 2014~2016年PM2.5污染物能增加合肥地区循环系统疾病死亡人数,且在老年人中效应更显著。

关键词: 空气污染, PM2.5, 循环系统疾病, 死亡, 时间序列

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution on mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City from 2014 to 2016. Methods Data on environmental factors and meteorological factors from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 was obtained from the local municipal environmental monitoring center and meteorology bureau of Hefei City, respectively. Data on daily mortality in the same period was obtained from the Death Reporting Monitoring Network system. Controlling temporal trends, temperature, relative humidity, day of week, weekend, holidays and 山 东 大 学 学 报 (医 学 版)56卷11期 -王志强,等.合肥市2014~2016年大气污染物PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析 \=-other factors, time-series analysis in generalized linear model which based on Poisson regression was applied to evaluate the association between air pollution and daily cardiovascular mortality. Results There was significant influence of increasing PM2.5 concentration on the mortality of circulatory diseases. The strongest effect was the lag0 day and lag05 day, the excess risk(ER)of death risk was 0.53%(95%CI: 0.09%-0.98%)in the lag0 day and 1.01%(95%CI: 0.33%-1.70%)in lag05 day. By increasing 10 g/m3 of PM2.5 concentration, the mortality rate of circulatory diseases increased 0.53% and 1.01%, respectively. In the elder group(age≥60),the effect was stronger(lag0: ER=0.57%, 95%CI: 0.11%-1.03%; lag05: ER=1.04%, 95%CI: 0.33%-1.76%), but there was no significant effect in the non-elder group(age<60). In the multi-pollution model, by adding SO2 or NO2, the effect of the model was reduced, and by adding O3, there was no significant effect in the model. Conclusion From 2014 to 2016, air pollution had a significant impact on the mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City. High ambient PM2.5 concentration can increase the number of mortality of circulatory diseases in Hefei City, and in the elder group, the effect was stronger.

Key words: Air pollution, PM2.5, Cardiovascular disease, Mortality, Time series analysis

中图分类号: 

  • R122.2
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