河南省信阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行动态

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0642

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探讨河南省信阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行动态,为优化疫情防控策略、评估干预措施效果提供科学依据。方法收集信阳市官方报道的COVID-19病例数据和个案信息,确定感染日期,并由此估计潜伏期,构建SEIR的传染病动力学模型,分析疾病发生发展规律,同时模拟分析改变防控措施实施时间时疫情的动态变化。结果信阳市累计报告COVID-19确诊病例274例,罹患率为3.72/10万;潜伏期的中位数为6.00(4.00,7.25)d。模型分析显示,信阳市疫情的基本再生数R0=2.86,采取防控措施后有效再生数降至0.29;若提前3 d采取防控措施,病例数降低50.5%,而推迟3 d采取防控措施,病例数将增加1倍。结论信阳市COVID-19疫情快速扩散,但在国家强有力的防控措施下疫情很快得到控制。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 流行动态, 传染病动力学模型, 基本再生数, 防控措施

Abstract: Objective To explore epidemic dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Xinyang City so as to provide scientific basis for optimizing the prevention and control strategies and evaluating the effects of intervention. Methods The epidemic data of official report was collected. The date of infection was determined to estimate the incubation period. At the same time, the infectious disease dynamic model of SEIR was constructed to analyze the development of disease and the dynamic changes of epidemic situations when the time of implementing prevention and control policies was changed. Results A total of 274 cases were reported in Xinyang City, with the incidence rate of 3.72 out of 100 000. The median incubation period was 6.00(4.00, 7.25)days. Model analysis showed that the basic reproductive number(R0)was 2.86 and the effective reproductive number decreased to 0.29 after the prevention and control measures were taken. If prevention and control measures were taken three days in advance, the number of cases would reduce by 50.5%, while three days later, the number of cases would double. Conclusion The epidemic spread rapidly in Xinyang City, but was quickly controlled under the strong prevention and control measures of the state.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, Epidemic feature, Dynamic model of infectious disease, Basic reproductive number, Prevention and control strategy

中图分类号:

R183

李春雨,朱雨辰,齐畅,刘利利,张丹丹,王旭,徐学利,李秀君. 河南省信阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行动态[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 38-43.

LI Chunyu, ZHU Yuchen, QI Chang, LIU Lili, ZHANG Dandan, WANG Xu, XU Xueli, LI Xiujun. Epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Xinyang City, Henan Province[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 38-43.

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