基于中国版甲状腺影像报告与数据系统的甲状腺结节恶性风险预测模型

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2021.1444

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To establish a nomogram based on Chinese Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System(C-TIRADS)to predict the malignant risk of thyroid nodules. Methods The clinical and ultrasonic data of 388 patients with thyroid nodules treated at the Department of Thyroid Surgery of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University during Jan. 2020 and Jun.2021 were collected. A total of 210 patients during Jan 2020 and Dec. 2020 were selected as the development group, and 118 patients during Jan. 2021 and Jun. 2021 were selected as the validation group. According to the postoperative routine pathological results, the patients in the developwent group were divided into benign nodules group(n=137)and malignant nodules group(n=133). The independent risk factors of malignant thyroid nodules screened by univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were included to establish the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with concordance index(C-index), receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve. Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, thyroid stimulating hormone(TSH), thyroglobulin(TG)and C-TIRADS classification were independent risk factors for malignant thyroid nodules. The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the nomogram was 0.981(95%CI: 0.967-0.996), and the AUC of the validation group was 0.951(95%CI: 0.909-0.992), showing the nomogram had excellent predictive performance. The C-index for internal validation of the nomogram was 0.981, suggesting that the nomogram had good discriminability. The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, indicating that there was a high consistency between the predicted risk and actual risk. Conclusion Age, TSH, TG and C-TIRADS classification are independent risk factors for predicting malignant risk of thyroid nodules. The developed nomogram can realize the individualized and accurate prediction of malignant risk of thyroid nodules.

Key words: Chinese Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System, Thyroid nodules, Nomogram, Malignant risk

CLC Number:

R736.1

YANG Lizhi, SUN Xiao, SHANG Mengmeng, GUO Lu, SHI Dandan, LI Jie. C-TIRADS-based nomogram for malignant risk prediction of thyroid nodules[J].Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2022, 60(6): 64-69.

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C-TIRADS-based nomogram for malignant risk prediction of thyroid nodules

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