武汉交通管制和集中隔离对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响的动力学模型研究

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-7554.0.2020.0712

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的定量评价武汉市采取交通管制和集中隔离措施对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的控制作用,为疫情防控提供科学依据。方法基于SEIR动力学模型,考虑无症状感染者和未确诊隔离患者的特征,构建SEIAHR模型。基于防控措施的实施时间,将疫情分为三阶段,并分别进行参数拟合和计算基本再生数,并对疫情的发展趋势进行预测。结果交通管制和集中隔离实施后,R0显著降低,三阶段的R0分别为3.684 1(95%CI:3.106 1~4.048 0)、2.178 8(95%CI: 1.725 8~3.577 6)、0.362 5(95%CI: 0.349 9~0.367 6),发病高峰也发生前移,从交通管制前的2020年4月19日前移至2020年3月14日,疫情规模也在防控措施的作用下减小。结论武汉交通管制和集中隔离措施对于疫情控制具有相当良好的作用,可以为其他国家疫情防控提供参考。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, SEIAHR传染病动力学模型, 交通管制, 定点医院, 基本再生数

Abstract: Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effects of traffic control and centralized quarantine measures on COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, so as to provide scientific basis for epidemic prevention and control. Methods The SEIAHR model was established based on SEIR dynamic model, which took into account the characteristics of asymptomatic carriers and unconfirmed quarantined patients. Based on the timing of prevention measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages, the parameters were fitted, the basic reproduction numbers of different stages were calculated, and the development trend of epidemic was predicted. Results The R0 decreased dramatically. The R0 of the three stages were 3.684 1(95%CI: 3.106 1-4.048 0), 2.178 8(95%CI: 1.725 8-3.577 6)and 0.362 5(95%CI: 0.349 9-0.367 6), respectively. Due to the traffic control travel and centralized quarantine, the peak of the disease moved forward from April 19 to March 14, 2020. The scale of the epidemic had also been reduced by prevention and control measures. Conclusion The traffic control and centralized quarantine measures implemented in Wuhan were effective for the epidemic control, which can provide reference for other countries.

Key words: Coronavirus disease 2019, SEIAHR infectious disease dynamics model, Traffic control, Centralized quarantine, Basic reproduction number

中图分类号:

R181.1

金新叶,卢珍珍,丁中兴,陈峰,彭志行. 武汉交通管制和集中隔离对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响的动力学模型研究[J]. 山东大学学报 (医学版), 2020, 58(10): 25-31.

JIN Xinye, LU Zhenzhen, DING Zhongxing, CHEN Feng, PENG Zhihang. A dynamic modeling study on the effects of Wuhan traffic control and centralized quarantine measures on COVID-19 epidemic[J]. Journal of Shandong University (Health Sciences), 2020, 58(10): 25-31.

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